Hi @mal85I am optimistic that a lot of good news will start...

Hi @mal85

I am optimistic that a lot of good news will start flowing soon (wide deployment of rapid test kits, wide deployment of masks, anti-virals, ramp-up of locally produced respirators etc). We have the benefit of not having being hit hard early - like Spain & Italy (*). The other thing that's adding to the gloom is that fatality rates look much worse than they probably are because testing is generally inadequate AND skewed. Most countries are focusing their testing on the vulnerable or already sick- especially in countries that were unfortunate enough to have been caught early (Italy & Spain). This makes the statistics look shocking. It is very telling to compare a country that has had a very high test rate (Iceland) against one that has been more typical of the West (The Netherlands).


As you can see, Iceland shows cases that are quite evenly distributed against age groups. The Netherlands on the other hand, is heavily skewed to the elderly. This is consistent with the Netherlands focusing testing on the vulnerable and already sick (as has is the case with most Western countries). What is also interesting is that Iceland is reporting one of the highest infection rates in the world. Now the fact little 'ol remote Iceland is reporting some of the highest infection rates, is rather telling, I would think.

That's not to say this is not a serious issue. The fact medical facilities are being swamped, the world over, is evidence enough of that. However, and further to your comments, it does offer hope that if we can get ICU capacity up, and proper isolation/screening at medical facilities, then this looks to me like a much less scary monster. But I'm no healthcare expert - so I will leave you @mal85 to comment further.

With regards to your comment about Australia, I'm not quite as sanguine as you, as I am mindful of the fact that Australians are heavily indebted to property. That said, the AUD is likely to provide valuable cushioning. So all in all, I think caution is warranted. But, everyone will likely be cautious and/or fearful in the coming weeks and months, or longer, and so it's likely fertile ground to acquire worthy shares. Certainly not the time to be selling (in my opinion).

(*): Though my general feelings are that The West fiddled while Wuhan was getting ravaged. This is inexcusable, as it provided valuable opportunity for preventative actions. But we in the West thought "Nah, Chinese issue - she'll be right.". Various East Asian countries have really put us to shame.