Curve may be flattening too quickly now???, page-329

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    Yes, with the passing of time talk about Sweden has gone increasingly quiet.

    I guess this picture doesn't fit the narrative:

    Deaths Sweden.JPG


    And the Swedish economy is outperforming the rest of Europe by far - Swedish MQ2020 GDP was up 0.4%, compared to a 3.6% fall in GDP for the broader Eurozone, and for JQ2020, Swedish GDP fell 8.6%, almost a full 400bp better than the >12% fall in Eurozone GDP.

    And that's despite exports representing more than half of Swedish GDP, so if you adjust for the fact that demand for Swedish exports from its Eurozone trading partners would have fallen by more than Sweden's 8.6% GDP fall, it means that the domestic component of the Swedish economy has proven to be remarkably resilient, probably falling by a mere 1% or 2%.

    In pure monetary terms, Sweden has saved itself something like 4oo or 500bp of GDP which, given the size of the Swedish economy is some US$530bn pa in size, that amounts to around US$20bn that the Swedes have to invest in things like healthcare, education, infrastructure and other nation-building activities.

    And that doesn't even account for the cost of the adverse social impacts associated with lockdowns: mental health issues, stress, depression, domestic abuse, increased alcohol consumption and gambling, suicides, etc., which themselves are likely to amount to billions of dollars more, which have been avoided.

    Based on the media reports I see, the Swedes are enjoying themselves and their freedoms.

    Meanwhile, back in Lockdown Australia, the Coefficient of Anxiety-Induced Gnarliness is heading off the charts.



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