Customer Development Update (new AJX e-mail), page-22

Just a note on the “confident: wording.
And this may be difficult to follow ...

I think Alexium have to use it until they know that Actual sales to date, plus forecast sales from those same customers at that same date met $18.5m USD / $22m AUD for the CY. Right now they don't.

For example Alexium had $1m in sales for the March quarter
If April month say produced $0.8m in sales and May month produces $1.2m in sales, then at the end of May we would still only be able to say we remain confident as we'd have $1m (Mar Qtr) + $0.8m (Apr Mth) + $1.2m (May mth) or $3m in actual sales to end May and a forecast of $8.4m ($1.2m * 7) for the remaining 7 months of year based on those same customers and their sales levels at end May - so $12.4m for the CY.

But say June has quarterly sales of $3m and July month has sales of $3m for the month alone.
Then actual sales for the 7 months to July would be $7m or $1m (Mar qtr) + $3m (Jun qtr) + $3m (Jul mth).
And then based on $3m of actual monthly sales for July the forecast for the last 5 months of the year based on those customers and their sales levels at end July would be $15m ($3m * 5).
So total CY sales would be $22m based on actual sales (of $7m) and forecast sales (of $15m) based on customers at end July. And Alexium could say they were pretty much 100% confident of meeting sales target


Now say August month produced sales of $5m for the month alone, then based on a similar calculation Alexium could say that they will be exceeding their previous target of $18.5m USD and could set a new figure. In this case of in excess of $30m AUD based on the calculations above.

Hopefully you’re not too confused ….

Seb