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hindmarsh

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14/05/16

10:05

Post #: 17765928
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Originally posted by pintohoo ↑

"Now say August month produced sales of $5m for the month alone, then based on a similar calculation Alexium could say that they will be exceeding their previous target of $18.5m USD and could set a new figure."

perhaps,

I think it is simpler than that - as far as I read it time and time again -- $18.5 million US is not a target --

Nick has said many times - it is already converted.

Hence they say that is a minimum projected revenue for the Jan to Dec 2016 period --------------- that is - they are already contracted for that.

So - that is IMO - not a target - and not a goal --------- it is already achieved - that is what 'already converted' means.

As far as I can see - they keep giving that as a guidance minimum - then go on to say that it could be as high as ?? $40 plus million US - if polymers fire - etc..

Again, as far as I can see - both of those figures - 18.5 and +40 (think it was 43.5 from memory) - take nothing into account from new customers or new sales --------------- only from projects that were either signed and sealed - or already in the pipeline somehow.

And those figures were given basically at the start of the year.

To me - I would have thought although our sales cycle may well not allow (in fabrics) for full production figures from new sales in that period (meaning new customers or new projects) - ie. lets go with a sales cycle of 18 months - meaning that anything new now will be in full production around the end of CY 2017 - however, it will mean small amounts for trials and similar - and, some of those will be paid for in this year.

Now - that sales cycle is only on fabrics - which we know can go up to 18 months to full production - but, polymers appear to be different - they 'seem' to be able to be far quicker - we are yet to see just how much quicker.

I would not be surprised if the initial sales cycle in the first couple of polymer customers - although the process was reported to be moving very fast - was indeed slowed up at a point - because we would have found out things along the way that were different between the legal bits for polymers and fabrics -
my feeling is that - because we now have full production customers - that we have got over that leaning curve (at least mostly) - and the next polymer sales will proceed much faster than the first one - or two (because we know a lot more).

Which basically means - that IMO - we could get almost anything this calendar year from polymers - we may well go from a knock on the door to full production well within the year - which would be a dream in fabrics.

That's my take on it.

On top of it - there is the bloody carpet industry - which seems more secretive than the CIA, KGB and Mossad put together.

Pinto

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Just wondering if AJX make the safest carpet in the world!

AJX Price at posting: 59.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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