The process has begun. The question is whether it will be completed in 21 weeks. The company now has more orders than the threshold required to provide the necessary valuation that was stated at the AGM and the various presentations around that time. There are many questions that will not be answered. These include the identity of the customers, at least officially, the size of individual orders, their policy regarding Oasis buyback and other matters that would enable us to make more accurate predictions. There are plenty of indications and hints dropped that the size of the orders is sufficient since we were told Larsons, Karmann and perhaps one other were the minimum. Now we are told that BAE (without officially mentioning the name of the large British defence contractor they have been mentioning for a year) and a couple of large airframe manufacturers (now who could they be?) have already placed orders that make the Larsons order appear very small. You will all have seen the Larsons announcement of a LARGE PO so we have an idea of the relative size of the new orders.
CS in NY is running everything related to strategy so they will be maximising the value of the listing for the benefit of us all, at least for those who transfer their holdings. Production may start immediately and we will see these numbers reflected in the next quarterly but the basis for the valuation in the NASDAQ listing will be the forward earnings estimates backed by the POs and these will only be revealed in the prospectus and associated briefings so may still be some way off. Oasis is a problem at the moment. There are still a couple of months left for them to convert before the remaining notes are paid off at $3.10 or so. They will convert them all in that time for certain unless someone makes them a reasonable offer. Whether they actually sell the shares and so depress the market remains to be seen. Most of the previous 3 million have been sold but they may just keep the rest to obtain a higher offer price. Who knows what a hedge fund will do? As CS is underwriter until December and QVT has a time limit on listing then they cannot delay much beyond September in my view but could still slip in by early July. Timing now may be a matter of market sentiment. The principals want maximum return even more than the other shareholders. After all, they created the value, we didn't.
DR for President!
TZL Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
