cvdr takeover of fmg, page-13

In 2006 Vale took over Inco, the world's largest nickel producer with a 100 year track record, for $17Bn. I am not sure how that acquisition is currently looking - they would have had 18 good months out of it at this point. But are they really going to take over FMG, even at current prices, with an EV of ~$9Bn? No production history, no financial history, uncertain markets moving forward - at least in the near future - significant competition with expansions on the table. Surely you let FMG swim first - or sink as the case may be. If someone else makes a bid (which I doubt) then you review your position. But you would prefer to pay more in 2 years time when the situation has stabilised, than you would today with the position extremely uncertain. Lets hope the major cyclone systems forecast in WA for this season do not effect FMG's production systems - though from what we read it may give their contract buyers some welcome relief.