CVN Shareprice Action, page-10

Price action ATM seems like a stalemate. After seeing last weeks (surprising) lack of large scale short covering shorters seem unwilling to quickly cover their positions.This may be due to sheer lack of selling volume available. 48m shorts to cover and daily volumes normally around 2m. Maybe they can't and are stuck having to buy back gradually unless there is a left field announcement. I reckon they are still in the money. Morningstar Quantitative has a value of mid 30s to 40c and this likely to be mainly Dorado. Pavo, Apus and Buffalo are the blue sky as is the entire Bedout Basin. Phoenix and Roc proved there's stuff there. It's just hard to finding commercial volumes. After the recent SP meltdown potential buyers may need a large margin for risk probably unwilling to take the SP higher. Catalysts for a higher price are POO up, Buffalo farmout and excitement about Pavo and Apus. Hopefully POO up and Buffalo will be in the near term and drilling in latter 2021.

So for me there's plenty of money in the bank for Pavo and Apus etc but I have a gut feel Dorado will need a small CR (plenty of debt financing available. My guess Macquarie Group who like to fund these projects with equity kicker) but that's a very long way down the track (my guess 3-5 years). Can shorters wait that long?