I think they couldn’t cover at 80c without causing a price spike...

I think they couldn’t cover at 80c without causing a price spike and change sentiment, due to the amount shorted - plan was probably to hold it there for a while to establish a new normal, to then slowly filter out their large volumes.

That strategy was mildly successful until the LTR bid unravelled everything - then basically all of them had to coordinate a orderly exit, which is difficult when everyone is rushing for the door. There’s going to be a stampede.

The fact that the mine and DMS ramp up has been on schedule, indeed early, without many teething problems at all hasn’t helped.

They were probably banking on some delays given most simillar projects have faced similar problems. Unfortunately for them the best they could get was a minor issue with water which ended up being neutralised pretty quickly.