Hi Drake,
Thanks for the compliment. However, like many others here, I have been side-swiped by the quarterly, and it shows black swan events like this, make a mockery of pretty much any chart analysis (usually fairly reliable).
I have never seen such short lived momentum on any stock I've charted before, and it's a lead indicator for me (see below - only 5 days in the green).
Being kept in the dark about all the processing issues, pit wall issues, cost blow outs etc., until this quarterly, leading everyone to believe all was well, borders on contempt. I've read comments of others considering class action lawsuits and all the rest of it, but I don't think there'd be much mileage in that.
Anyway, chart wise, MA's all pointing down, momentum against us. Short term, I can see it heading in only one direction, barring some other bolt out of the blue. There's an amount of support at 65c and 60c below that. I couldn't put a number on how low it could go if it hits the latter:
I don't think it's all negative though. Gaps usually close, which means the one above should do, given time.
That's the key here, time. My guess is it'll take a good 4-6 months to sort out the processing issues, the pit wall issues and all the rest of it.
I don't like seeing such a huge exploration spend when what's been earmarked to that and other issues, is roughly what we have left in the kitty.
The production supposedly being less in 2025 than 2024 makes no sense whatsoever. I'd much rather see the funds thrown at BP33 and get that going ASAP. It's paramount now. Or are they seriously banking on finding out if an existing deposit will be big enough to open cut before BP33? That seems highly unlikely, so it makes little sense to me.
I still hold a little over 1.1m shares but have put some of my funds elsewhere I believe has a lot more potential over the next 24 months. I made the mistake of "falling in love with the stock" and not pulling out more when it was around the $1.50 mark. I am still in shock as to how wrong CXO have got this, particularly from an engineering / processing perspective.
The best we can hope for is a T/O offer out of leftfield, but who's likely to take it on without a Tier 1 deposit?
Long term, I think we'll be fine. But there are better opportunities around right now.
Good luck!
(20min delay)