Well after mostly completing a 2500km house move, I am back on the forum, but probably won't post after this one until mid January, I don't see much change in CXO over the next three weeks or so, and I must admit it has been nice whilst moving not monitoring my phone. To answer your question @seaemay, I don't track the LIT ETFs, based on your query I had a quick look at it, and I'm not sure how strong an indicator of lithium price it is, it could perhaps represent some inkling into lithium sentiment, but looking into the major companies that the ETF buys, they are not indicative of lithium miners. They have some smaller holdings in AVZ and Altura, and seem to hold them at around the 1 million dollar value (out of 490m total assets) - they may have some internal guidelines on limits for the speccie end, so even if they invested in CXO, it might be a reasonable investment for us, but probably not company making so to speak - it would however be a good indication on sentiment for us. The top ten for the ETF are:
Column 1 0 {colgroup} 1 {col=319x@}{/col} 2 {/colgroup} 3 ALBEMARLE CORP 4 QUIMICA Y-SP ADR 5 TESLA INC 6 VARTA AG 7 GS YUASA CORP 8 LIVENT CORP 9 ENERSYS 10 SIMPLO TECHNOLOGY CO LTD 11 PANASONIC CORP 12 SAMSUNG SDI CO LTD
As you can see, I am not aware of any of them being purely miners - most are on the chemical or product end of the spectrum. Even talking about the speccie end, it would be a long shot for us but I do struggle to understand the investment in companies like AVZ - it is years from any kind of profit and has a heap of hurdles to get over before it gets anywhere near one - CXO would be a better bet over the next 5 years in my view.
So to sum up, not sure I see a parallel to lithium price from the ETF price, but it could link to sentiment perhaps but given the end of the lithium supply chain where most of their investments are, I'm not entirely convinced that even sentiment at this end has much of a correlation to the carbonate price - would love to hear others counter thought to this.
All that said, I am optimistic about 2020 for CXO, and I think that the lithium market (our end anyway) is at or is very close to the bottom - with current prices, we would still be making a profit, so once we get the approvals out of the way, we should see some positive SP movement - Finally!
On another note, I emailed management about the detail in the last announcement, they mentioned that the original version didn't have anything about the MMP in there, but recalling the feedback from the AGM, they decided to include it. I was glad that they listened and reinforced that it would be great to see this kind of detail in the future in all announcements. Ideally they would have included this info without prompting, but nobody's perfect and at least they are open to suggestions. We will see how the next couple of announcements come out.
Have a merry xmas CXO'ers, and a I hope you have a happy holiday period (if you get one). See you in 2020, a year which I hope will be a company defining one!
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