There is nothing wrong with posters venting their frustrations @Mundo122 - they have earned the right I think. I get that you quoted a 3 month wait on ADN, and I have no doubt that you have waited longer on other stocks, but many here have been around in CXO for a lot longer than 3 months. I am glad that your research has lead you to believe that CXO is a sure-fire bet, but I think that what is now readily apparent to you, has been so to other long-term holders for some time, but I would love for you to post what you think is so strong about CXO, and what attracted you to it.
If you consider that some long term holders became attracted to CXO even before or perhaps during the hype of 2016 when it looked like lithium was going to boom and keep running, then it can be an awfully painful pill to swallow when over 4 years later, the stock price of CXO is not much different (and significantly less in some cases) than it was back then. The only error IMO on behalf of long term holders has been the timing. CXO has as much going for it now as it did back then, except now, a lot of what was aspiration then is now science. The risk accepted but the early adopters has not paid off when considering people joining the company now accept significantly less risk for the same pay off (as the SP is not significantly higher now compared to then). This is great for those that have seen the strengths of CXO recently, and hopefully it will be great for those that identified it many years ago - perhaps with the benefits of capital gains discounts for those around longer than 12 months.
I agree that patience is required, but this is nothing new. I actually long for a time when patience is no longer required because the reason for it is no longer relevant. This will be the case when the SP is no longer stable and we see some dramatic upward movement. I completely agree that this is no longer that far away and CXO sits on the precipice of becoming a player in the lithium producing industry.
There is definitely some churn going on at the moment, and it does feel like that we have finally got through all the SI stock that they were willing to sell. We will see some more of this from the retail side next week, and hopefully in a week or so, we will be through that as well. From then on, we hopefully won't have anything holding the SP back from upward movement from the release of the updated DFS and subsequent announcements.
When we hit the churn or periods of little movement, I like to look back at the fundamentals of the project - these are things that I find most attractive for the CXO story. In my mind, they are (noting this list is a lot longer than it used to be as most of it is now proven):
1. Excellent logistics (no FIFO, no mining camps, short runs to port/essential services etc etc) 2. Superior cost per tonne that effectively eliminates the need to consider price - if price ever got any where near our operating cost then there would only be a couple of companies that would still be operating. 3. Declared 170,000 tonnes production output 4. very low CAPEX 5. 70,000 tonnes of output binding, 50,000 non-binding - to different sides of the globe 6. Good recoveries 7. Excellent Grade 8. updated DFS to come with likely +5MT of reserves which should amount to approx NPV of 250-300m (over double what it is now) 9. Additional off takes to come (likely only room for 1 more) 10. Finance to come noting that some of this may already be sorted through the agreement with Primero 11. A management team that are definitely strong geologists (good for a mining company), and yep they have some ways to go on the commercial side, but they are getting things done. 12. Key approvals (environmental/government) granted. 13. Stable political region that desperately needs jobs at the moment 14. An industry that is consuming current stockpiles as a result of limiting supply 15. Lithium prices improving, and If COVID continues to hit Brazil/South America, prices could spike over the next 12 months 16. Demand of EV's increasing and we haven't seen the effect of post COVID realisations yet (i.e. India being able to see the Himalayas for the first time in a decade - this had to have a profound effect on the populous). 17. SOI of 920m - still relatively small for an exploration/junior developer.
CXO is set for a serious re-rate, it should be soon, but then again, I am one of those long(ish) term holders that saw the potential several years ago. I definitely got the timing wrong. I am confident though that I got the thesis right, just not the 'when', so what do I know....DYOR - I have, I do, and I'm in. GLTA.
