I've been accused of talking my own book up. So I'll be less...

I've been accused of talking my own book up. So I'll be less vocal and more factual.

I'm short. In some size. This time round I'm confident of the market playing out the way I see it.

This latest threat of a sell off is real, but only as real as the next stop gap solution appears. Thus, forget the 20% plus tonkings. You'll get 10% on all indices (+/- 3% for over exuberance).

Mark my words. This side of Christmas, there will be a corporate deal that will instill confidence and bullish sentiment to the market. This will last precisely one thin trading month.

Just enough to inspire confidence in the broad market, for people to pony up their Christmas bonuses to start the new year on a bullish tone. And just was when you think the markets have gone over the wall of worry, Calamari Bank will unleash some strong words on the economy, Europe, China and forever growth mode - all in the same sentence, while standing on the short side.

I remember being on the reverse of this 4 years ago. BHP had just made a bid for Rio Tinto (not really a bid, more of an expression of interest), and the world thought the markets were safe for another 4 years. After all, if BHP was buying, the market HAD to be safe.

Then I copped 23 days of selling in a row. I remember tearing my hair out, as I watched QBE fall 20%, went in hard and watched it fall another 20%.

Northern Rock fell in 2007, market ignored it. Read Ausbil Dexia. Bear Stearns funds collapsed in 2007. Market soared after an initial hiccup. Read Greece. Markets were nervous about Lehmann. Read Italy.

It's playing out all over again, and I will be making a rather large bet on the market in January, if some monolith transaction sends the market back up to 12500.