G’day all,With production wrapped up for the year and the wet...

G’day all,

With production wrapped up for the year and the wet season setting in, I thought I’d share some initial thoughts on the risk of cyclones to the company.

I’ll caveat this all by saying I am in no way a meteorologist, it’s mostly for my own peace of mind.

Currently, BOM are assessing a 15% chance of a cyclone forming in the Gulf over the next week:

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/

The most recent actual cyclone to make landfall nearby was TC Penny - 1 Jan 2019:

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/Penny-2019.shtml

A Low cut west over the Cape then formed into a Cat 1 in the Gulf before making landfall near Weipa. It didn’t even warrant an MMI company announcement, though it did shut down the Rio’s port operations for a couple of days:

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/australianz/tropical-cyclone-penny-barrels-toward-australias-queensland-coast

The last close call was TC Nora - 23 to 25 March 2018.

It formed in the Arafura Sea, got to Cat 3 as it went south-east through the gulf past Weipa, resulting in a surge of 1.2m in Weipa:

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/Nora.shtml

MMI released this announcement following the storm, showing a 1-week delay to operations recommencing. At the time, barges and tugs were moored in the river, with no material damage noted.

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2995-01966132-2A1073539

Prior to this, the last significant one to hit Weipa was TC Ethel - 7-13 March 1996:

It formed in the Gulf, Cat 2 as it made landfall north of Weipa, resulting in a surge of 1.18m:

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/ethel.shtml

The storm had a minor impact on Comalco’s operations:

https://www.copyright link/politics/weipa-hit-in-ethels-rampage-19960312-k6u8p

Of course just because something super gnarly hasn’t happened recently doesn’t mean it can’t, but overall the risk seems low as most cyclones that form in the Gulf do not significantly impact the Cape.

March presents the biggest risk with personnel and equipment back at site. If one forms in the latter half of the month at very least we should expect a delay on operations resuming.

Keen on your thoughts, if I’ve made any blatant oversights please let me know!