Hi folks,
Here are a few of my projections for the current quarter. Can someone please check them for accuracy:
1. Gold price has held steady in Aussie dollars since the beginning of April at around $3500. The quarterly gold price figure will be a little lower for Plutonic as they are still selling a few ounces (350 a month I think) at slightly below current prices. So I'll make that a $3350 gold price for Plutonic.
2. Plutonic production comes in at 20,000oz @ $2150 AISC, same as last quarter. That AISC is a little lower than the previous quarter as James has already stated sustaining capital costs are declining leading to lower production costs. It might be slightly higher than $2150, but is trending down as production increases efficiencies so it will get there eventually.
3. Henty comes in at 7,000 oz @$2600 AISC, a $112 lower AISC than last quarter as "learnings from Plutonic" continue. As far as I know Henty is fully exposed to the $3,500 gold price.
4. This gives us total production of 27,000 oz for the quarter.
5. Henty's 7,000 oz gives us $900 free cashflow per ounce resulting in $6.3m FCF for the quarter.
6. Plutonic's 20,000 oz gives us $1,200 free cashflow per ounce, resulting in $24m FCF for the quarter.
7. Combined this gives James a starting point of $30 million to play with. With his Scottish frugality I'd say he will continue to clear away the rubbish and start the new financial year with as clean a slate as possible.
Now the kicker...
If the gold price stays at its current level and costs continue to slowly shrink as production starts to expand at Plutonic towards and beyond 100,000 oz a year, and Henty pushes to 30,000 oz next financial year, then we are looking at a post AISC cashflow well north of $120 million for the 2024/5 financial year. The year later production from Plutonic could reach 150,000 oz as we fully exploit the mill's idle capacity.
This company is currently valued at a total of $211 million. That's a cashflow to market cap of less than 2. Most midcaps are valued at around 4-5 times cashflow. If my assumptions are correct, CYL will double or triple in price over the next 12-18 months, and do even more than that the next year. And that's not taking into account a US$3,000 oz gold price in that timeframe.
Any comments? Any holes in my assumptions?
Expand
(20min delay)