Numbers wise I'm calculating between 16-17 million shares traded since the bid (there was a little bit of difference between yahoo and the asx charts on this- I sort of wonder if they include chi-x data so challenge this number if you feel it's incorrect). This is out of a total of 236 million shares on issue for CZR.
Again, and if my numbers are correct, this means 6% of the CZR shares on issue have been traded since the bid. Several implications I suppose. Just while I'm at it some of the assumptions in my last post were off the mark. (I did say they were assumptions though)
Consider the following from
Shareholding thresholds - The Allens handbook on takeovers in AustraliaA person who obtains voting power in 5% or more of an ASX-listed company is required to publicly disclose that fact within 2 business days via the filing of a substantial holding notice. A person’s voting power consists of their
own ‘relevant interest’ in shares plus the relevant interests of their associates. A further notice needs to be filed within 2 business days after each subsequent voting power change of 1 percentage point or more, and after the person ceases to have voting power of 5% or more.
The notice must attach all documents which contributed to the voting power the person obtained or provide a written description of arrangements which are not in writing.
So in short
1. Basically you have 2 days to declare a newly acquired 5% holding, and anyone holding 5% or more has 2 days to report a further subsequent 1% addition to that 5%
Next round of assumptions- Well I have quite a few here. 1. FMG hold 10% of CZR? - that's what I read, or I thought I'd read, but perhaps only heard here on this forum of infinite truth - hotcopper. Anyway, having a look, I can't see where I garnered that little factoid- CZR don't show top shareholders on their reports or pressos really.... Anyway, let's consider my assumption to be correct- FMG @10% of CZR. Now that means if they are on the task but trying to keep a low profile, they would acquire perhaps another 0.9% of CZR shares so as not to have to declare anything above 1% addition.
Because if FMG ...hold slightly more than 10%...
They will then have the ability to block compulsory acquisition.
because...
"A person who has a greater than 10% shareholding interest in an ASX-listed company will be able to prevent a majority shareholder from moving to 100% ownership through compulsory acquisition, because the compulsory acquisition threshold is set at 90%."
Got this next bit from the financial review.
"Mr Creasy’s private company, Yandal Investments, classified ASX-listed CZR as a subsidiary for accounting purposes in its 2022-23 accounts even though its shareholding stood at 44 per cent. Yandal said its related parties held a further 8.76 per cent of CZR stock."
Can I infer here that Creasy has 52% of Robe Messa under his control via Yandal investments and related parties. Add to this his 15% personal holding of Robe Messa. He basically controls 67% of Robe Messa.
So, while only 6 % of the shares in CZR have been traded since the deal announced perhaps Rio are waiting at just under the 5% holding and FMG are pitched with their 10.9% and they are talking to Creasy now because he ultimately controls the outcome here. They aren't going to start advertising the fact that they are acquiring on market, it's not a good strategy when Creasy holds the cards they want.
The volumes would fit with this, i.e first four days after the bid is when the majority of the 6% changed hands. Volume in the last four days has dropped right off.
Other possibilities include Rio haven't started aquiring and 5 % went to a fund.
Or is it possible Miracle are buying on market? I suspect this is not allowed but will go back to my Allens handbook.
Really, I'm just trying to work this out myself here.
(20min delay)