My view is that I can't see anyone making a counter offer until...

My view is that I can't see anyone making a counter offer until FIRB has made its decision.

Why would they? A negative decision by FIRB would be similar to a freezing of the project. It would send a strong signal that this project cannot be sold to an offshore (Chinese?) party. The SP will drop on the news and therefore any counter offer (if any) would likely be less than the current offer. RIO, if they were serious about buying (or steralizing) the project, would probably then take their time or not even bother, as the threat of an unwanted developer of the project has been signifcantly reduced.

On the flip side however, a positive decision by FIRB would force a counter offer as FIRB approval would be one of the last (if not the last) material condition to be met before the sale completes.

I think the likelihood of FIRB not approving the sale is quite low, my only proviso being that I would be more comfortable if the proposed buyer of the Robe Mesa was not the same buyer of the Paulsens East project. The fact they are looking to buy 2 (rather than 1) project may spook authorities. But both projects on there own are, by comparison to other nationally significant IO projects in the Pilbara, quite small. The other potential risk is that RIO (or another large player) starts lobbying the government over the proposed sale and puts pressure on them to make a negative decision.

Anyway, the price action over the past few days suggests things are progressing well for CZR (or traders are speculating that this is the case). If the project does get FIRB approval, I can see the share price settling into the high 30s until settlement occurs.