It's correct that FIRB has approved some Chinese investments over the past 2 years, but most have been in non-contentious industries like agriculture, real estate and manufacturing, and the number has been dwindling in recent years. I can think of only two relevant transactions to CZR's scenario that actually succeeded:
1. The China Baowu–Rio Tinto JV ($2B, approved in August 2023) took 7 months to clear FIRB. This was a 46% joint venture with Rio Tinto in the Western Range (Pilbara), which likely eased concerns since Rio retained control. Despite this, the long approval timeline shows how cautious FIRB is with iron ore. (source:
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/su...efaccf&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium)
2. The Highfield Potash deal (approved in Jan 2025) took 5 months.This involved a Chinese investor, Yankuang Energy taking a stake in Highfield Resources, but as a joint venture, not an outright sale. Potash isn’t considered a critical resource, and Australia isn’t a major producer, so foreign ownership wasn’t a major concern. (Source:
https://unauthorised investment adv...op-5-firb-hurdle-cleared-for-emr-potash-deal/)
CZR’s case is different—it’s an outright sale, not a JV with an established Australian miner, and iron ore is politically sensitive, even if it’s not officially classified as a critical resource. If FIRB were comfortable with the deal, it likely would have been approved by now. The delay suggests they may be stalling to kill it quietly or waiting for political cover before making a decision.
That said, I don't think all hope is lost. Unlike Baowu’s $2B investment, CZR’s project is small in scale, producing only a fraction of Australia’s total iron ore exports. Trade relations between Australia and China have been improving, with Beijing recently lifting tariffs on Australian wine and barley. If FIRB wants to signal further goodwill while keeping a cautious stance, this could be the kind of low-risk approval they grant next.However, with a federal election around the corner, the government will be wary of appearing weak on foreign ownership, especially in the mining sector. Any decision that could be framed as "selling off" Australian resources may be politically risky. If approval does come, it may be closer to or after the election, when the government has more flexibility.
(20min delay)