CZR "FOMO", page-699

I don’t think that’s quite right. While this is a scrip deal, not cash, the market is mispricing the probability of this takeover reaching 75% approval. Right now, Fenix is trading between 0.28 - 0.32, meaning the 0.98 CZR-to-FEX conversion (if 75% is met) implies a CZR price of 27-31c.

I’d say there is a high probability of reaching more than 75% approval given that:

• Creasy (52.18%) has already committed, meaning only another 22.82% is needed;
• Smaller shareholders have every reason to accept, as hitting 75% steps the offer up from 26c to 30c, making rejection a value-destructive move;
• If Creasywasn’t accepting, it would likely mean a competing bid is emerging, which would make prices higher, not lower; and
• No rival bids have emerged, and historically, deals with a major holder locked in tend to carry through.

Applying a 95% probability of success (which feels highly conservative given the above) ,the expected price should be 0.95 × (27c - 31c) = 25.7c - 29.5c (say amid-point of 27.6c), yet CZR is still trading at 25c.

The market isn’t pricing in the near-certainty of the step-up to 30c, when it should be closer to 28callowing for volatility.

22c simply doesn’t add up. The only realistic scenario where this deal doesn’t proceed is if a competing bid emerges—and in that case, CZR trades higher anyway.

Would be keen to hear a counterview, but based on the numbers, the current pricing looks slightly off.