Ultimately, the question about which party wins this bidding war...

Ultimately, the question about which party wins this bidding war is about who can align with Mark Creasy’s interests.

You’ve got Robe River JV (Rio), Gold Valley, and now Fenix Resources all circling. But none of them can close without the kingmaker himself. Creasy has the voting power and the strategic patience — and whoever secures him, obviously takes the prize.

So what does Creasy want? In my opinion, its not just about a price tag. He’s after strategic value.

The kind that keeps his brand intact as Australia’s top prospector and dealmaker. The kind that backs his long-held ambition to fund and develop Croydon Gold — a legacy play that’s been part of his narrative for years. He doesn’t just want a return — he wants the proceeds to mean something.

In that context, a Rio deal makes perfect sense. It's clean. It’s credible. And it lets him focus on Croydon while selling to a tier-one buyer.

Does he want exposure to Fenix? Doubt it. Their model — developing and operating — doesn't align with Creasy’s MO. He’s a dealmaker, not a project manager. Sure, CZR management has shown some superficial interest in Fenix — maybe as a backup option after the Miracle Iron bid fell through (likely due to anticipated FIRB hurdles) and their option incentives. And no doubt they've welcomed this bidding war. More bidders = more leverage.

You could make a logical argument that fenix is materially undervalued vs its future cash flow projections based on analyst estimates having it between 40c and 80c (personally, I’ve got it closer to 34c intrinsic value).

However, I think the value argument in isolation misses the key point. This is a strategic decision, not purely a financial one.

Creasy doesn’t play short games. I reckon he holds out for now, lets the sharks swirl, and eventually shakes hands on a $90–100M deal with Rio.

That’s a $0.38–$0.43 outcome — and a win-win for all.He gets the exit, the rep, and the Croydon opportunity. We get the re-rate.

DYOR - sentiment is hold (wait and see). I cannot change the “buy” sentiment for whatever reason.