I agree that management already has received the offer letter...

I agree that management already has received the offer letter from government and the latest shareholder update is a direct consequence of that notice, imho.


Once a company has received the offer letter negotiations for funding allotments are initiated.
Within this process, ESI management is sitting in a much more powerful negotiating position than prior to the letter.
Does it in this context surprise that alternative funding measures are announced putting Monash under pressure?


Monash had applied last minute changes prior to the AGM last year, minutes before the meeting. This clearly had shown that they used their position of CSI to force funding conditions, and, most likely, percentage ownership of the CDP.
Their contribution within the RFP was essential for ESI to receive a supposedly positive answer from government regarding the ALDP.


The very fact that ESI has achieved short term funding to finalise all engineering details until late August to have plans construction ready prior to the final ALDP decision, shows that management has now regained control, or at least equal standing, within the negotiations with Monash.

The Indian card plays an important role in that process as well, representing additional funding opportunities within the next 6 months.



The endless delays of Monash have shown investors and management that an ongoing struggle for dominance at the negotiating table was the status quo of the participants prior to the government letter.
These conditions are now leaning towards an ESI advantage.

This does not mean that Monash is not part of the CDP broader funding plans, but it would not call the shots anymore and will not be able to demand short term condition changes as seen in the past.

I very much doubt that Arup and Monash dilution are forthcoming to the maximum extend, rather that such bond extension can be used by management to pressure Monash to accept discussion conditions.




Overall, the position of management has strongly improved since early July and this should be reflected in a more stable and rising share price towards broad decisions regarding AGL and ALDP ( and possibly India ) in August.