D Day

Today is D Day. The ball is firmly in Semafo's court. They will fall short of 50% today so what will they do?

Will they pass up on a transformational acquisition in Orbis, which will materially boost their long-term production and cashflow profile, and over time, their valuation? Or will they walk and consign themselves to a declining production profile beyond 2017?

My guess is that they will raise their bid, subject to due diligence. The gold price, Semafo's shareprice and the currency have all worked in their favour since the bid was made. What's more, they know that the Independents Experts valuation is 72c-$1.15. Nearly every analyst which covers OBS has said that Semafo could raise their bid. One analyst has said a bid would be accretive up to $1.05.

It makes commercial and strategic sense for Semafo to raise their bid. They should bump up their bid by 10c or lose Semafo forever.