Will try and add a little substance (I hope it is of some benefit) to my reply for the sake of those just starting to read up on NMR. Just call me yack-o-matic.
Trying not to sound "rampy" here gents (i know we are having quite a NMR spell on HC here) - but I am partial to the story so will continue to post - mostly in the effort/hope of getting you all to bash my reasoning to bits - and clear up possible pros and cons in my pea-brain!
And of course will add in a few outrageous hopes and dreams - just for a laugh - OK! Gotta have some fun too!
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Today and this week a nice test I believe - with a lot of small and bigger traders back staring at their screen's again, deciding to sell into profit or grab a stake if NMR has their interest.
Remember that Chris Mason comes from the coal explorer/miner financing background. He seems a very genuine type, and is very bullish about this story (tempered by the fact that he is set to benefit from SP gains - and why not, as he was part of the early legwork!! he ain't selling yet it seems? - more on that below).
Would highly recommend that you give Chris a call and have a chat - if "you" accept the NMR risks, and intend dropping or leaving more than a few of "your" investment $$$ on this one.
Of course Chris can only say what has already been released on ASX - but he definitely DOES NOT sound like a "used car salesman" .... quite calm and focused in fact. Not suggesting we flood NMR with calls just because we are looking at investing a small trading portion!!! We don't want to slow 'em down either!!! Let 'em get some results out too!
If his finance/ broker type mates buy in, or sell NMR to their customers - more of the free-float may evaporate. Chris & Co don't seem to have had much trouble raising capital so far (though at depressed prices when markets were flatter around November).
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I am thinking prices will sooner or later stall just a bit as we all hold in anticipation of preliminary drill results. The preliminaries - while not JORCS' - are not nothing.
We have a template to work off - having been given the first Takatokwane results - and resultant JORC. All educated guessing - but hey - isn't that what we do here? Not so easy to make a profit once all the facts are out and the shoe-shine boy is telling you about Nimrodel!
Great chance for 5/9/10% trades if it levels out again - and if that it your market medicine!
Ever mindful of NMR Market cap - not just SP. Still looking good.
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Back to moratorium - Quanta.....
Yes, i believed this is what cap4444 was referring to - and yes he has a valid concern as it may stifle new interest in Botswana to a degree if not a positive outcome (or so some papers etc have argued). Remember though that whatever the decision - it will effect ALL Botswana coal peers - if not Botswana as a whole.
On the other hand it may also benefit NMR as they can continue to drill ahead of the other hopefuls, having jumped the gun/slipped through, as it were, via their buy-in to Walkabout. Timing might actually benefit Nimrodel if new mining licenses are delayed yet again. Not sure on 12th Jan of course. It will happen when it happens!?!
From my reading, there is very high political and commercial "will" to get the coal export / road map thing going as one path of wealth for Botswana.
Botswana just want to set out the rules for all concerned - at the outset - and do "the mining thing" in an orderly manner to benefit all parties - not like some countries who change the goal-posts after the fact - to suit dwindling government coffers! Hmmmmm......
I think this is in some ways very responsible (though would have hurt many who have been stalled). You can't please them all, all the time.
Seems to have worked out just fine for the likes of DeBeers (in the past of course). Lot of loyalty apparent in that Government/Investor relationship. Speaks volumes for this country in my books.
Bit of moratorium details at the following links - all pointing to "moratorium" delays from back in September 2011... as usual government site is quite skint on detail - if anyone can find anything new - it would be reassuring!!!
They will have to make a decision soon (just depends on your version of soon!!!.
bsh / NMR plans/ thoughts for this week/fortnight....
1) Chris definitely in office this week so can be contacted.
2) Have a few questions for NMR about DJC report (have found a couple of little things that i would like to see if can be clarified for all holders (nothing scary i promise - just want some additional clarity on TRIPROP JV timing etc - all good!!). No stone unturned!
3) I will be chasing up a current top 20 list (as i am sure all holders will be) to see who is now free-carried / sold / entered compared to before the holiday season. The new top 20 will prove a nice base reference to watch - to spot if and when slightly bigger brokers /traders are willing to have a bit of a spend on NMR. Nothing like some cold hard FACTS! to clear up the murk of who is selling and accumulating etc. Hoping to see effects of roadshow sooner rather than later!
4)Waiting eagerly as the NMR crew start hounding ACT in Pretoria for assay results - so they can release something to market.
5) Watching anything and everything on the Botswana government and mining department - as they start the calender year in full swing.
6) Watching trading as ST traders, holders, t+3's have their fun! Let's see how low we all let NMR go now - a third of January 2012 gone already!
7) Will start reading on the tangent of.... Diamonds. Have seem this mentioned as a "hot 2012 sector" (for reasons unknown to me at present). If true - then DeBeers/Botswana set to benefit. More money in Botswana government coffers = GOOD. Remote link i know - but all positive for the overall NMR story if true - given that Botswana will need every spare dollar, to get cross country railway happening, and/or appeal to investors in Botswana rail/mining.
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I would imagine one of the best things that could happen for NMR SP is that those who trade it - are selling so as to take some cash as a reward (of course!!) but also free carry a small portion - if they also believe in the long-term aspects.
This would all help buoy the SP price up - reducing future dilution - and allow the best of both trading worlds (LT and ST) - if this thing ever moves to the heady heights that some have mentioned (and of course we all hope for!). Wouldn't even a nice little bottom draw 50,000 share holding look good at $X.XX some ways down the track!
Bit more of that sort of strategy (from big fish) would no doubt have helped Aussie companies from selling their resource companies for peanuts. Oh to dream.
Remember that a large part of NMR holders are not selling - it would seem - and a lot of stale holders are in from the early 2007/8 days - at much higher prices.... Who knows what the true free floating NMR share volume is? 423million units is not out of this world. Especially if they can partially fund this thing from Oppie money over the next 12 months.
Each to there own on all the above!
Hoping we see Chris Mason and Co. interviewed as the new Twiggy's in years to come! Anything can happen, I guess, if things work out.
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All the best - finding "facts" and investing / trading on the back of them!
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None of my ramblings are meant to be investment advice of course (I am just a dreamer too!). 2000 companies on ASX and a myriad worldwide! But you can only research a few thoroughly!
Please DYOR too!
Blah blah blah.... blah blah..... blah
bsh
NMR Price at posting:
5.5¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
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