Daily Discussion, page-1992

My second post here. Last time was a month back when I included RDN into my tracking list.

Since then it has a slightly roller coaster ride, playing roughly 125%. Made a low of 1.9 and a high of 4.3.

I usually play the stocks in this phase but often don't write there. For two reasons. Firstly I play with moderate amount rather than large commitment. Secondly I play with soft hands - so I could exit anytime hence don't feel like writing for 1 or two times.

The reason I play this phase with moderate holding and soft hands is because I feel the stocks are in Stage 1. This Stage 1 concept I have written elsewhere a few times. Stage 1 is where the stock is rising on playing nearology, hype, potential, etc. Many small companies buy land or a big discovery close by. In this phase stocks could make a jump up to 100, 200 or even 300%. This is the play I like. Sometime back all Canadian stocks went thru that phase, In May DLI related stocks made similar gains, then Brazil, Andover related etc. Last year stocks like EFE, EVR, MRR, QXR, RAS, etc So a very lucrative phase.

Then the reality comes. Assay results. This is call Stage 2. I get out mostly before all these stocks reach Stage 2 - before they face reality. So why do I get out before Stage 2? Because reality is not good. Success rate in Li stocks is not good. Only 1 in 50 based on what I have been watching/reporting in last 2 years make it. In Aus land only AZS/WC8 look to be delivering, though final verdict is not in. But they have already made 16 to 33 bags just based on buy on 1st Jan this year, so maybe nothing more to prove. So we are looking for another one. If it comes, huge gains can be made, so I understand why many want to take the risk, even though stats on results are not good.

Personally my first buy was at 2.5 when it was coming back from 1.9 low. I got out this week at 3.8 when it came down from 4.3. Have bought back at 3.3 when it started coming back from 3.1 low. Reason I got out is - my play is to get out if it drops around 10/15%. Reason? I have seen most stocks which having done Stage 1 (big gains) playing Stage 2 (reality, assay results) drop very big - most of them in fact have reversed complete gains of 100 to 300%, so big drop, and not few stocks, more than 60 stocks, hence I play with soft hands. Happy to buy higher, if it turns. Or looks a real deal.

RDN is looking good till now, especially the way it rebounded from 1.9. So risk/reward is good, volume is very good, interest very high, Andover in the eye of everyone. I track 96 stocks to see price action, and watching price action of RDN means I have to play. Technicals and sentiments may drive this in short term till we get a significant announcement. I wish everyone well and hope this one is the next big one.

For those interested how RDN is tracking against other Lithium stocks or who hold multiple Lithium stocks, I do a Weekly Report across 96 ASX Li stocks. It has got Weekly/Yearly data how stocks are tracking. I also have commentary across general markets and sector. Those just holding specific stocks, it may not be relevant, so please ignore.

Here is the report for this week.
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https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/sya-weekly-report.6951924/page-2#post-70728818
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