Well they all do seem to be moving in sync with each other don't' they.
And I realise that they ( RDN , GRE , ARV & ERW ) ALL have their different attributes , land holdings , nearology , POW's , exploration results , assays , and existing significant holder partnerships and interconnectivities. ......but if we were just to stand back from it and almost view the entire region from a geological tonnage similarity to the Iron Ore endowments of the Pilbara.
....if we just stood back from all that and said purely from a relative timeline view comparison to that of AZS and its early timing of SQM's original stake at approximately 30 cents in January 2023 to its steadily growing exploration results and pegmatite trend identifications it developed to around May 2023 when its SP was around 56 cents before its next leg the up.
So if we just compare the relative timeline defined by the linkage between lets say 50 cents per share to the post SQM second bid of $3.52 some 10 months later...., we could look at this any number of ways as a percentage of this or that in terms of number of times growth in their SP. However , I'm more interested in looking at it from the regression point of view whereby their SP at say 50 cents was roughly 20% of the $2.4 capital raise and post FIRST bid offer by SQM . And that was at the 7 month milestone from their ( SQM's ) first investment . And then the SP went to around 14% of its $3.52 offer at the 10 month mark after their second bid.
So let's just take an AVERAGE then of 17% of whatever the value is NOW and then move our estimates of market value on from that point.
So to make this approach even more fair and reasonable , let's take an approach whereby we eliminate any discrimination of the differences of GRE ,RDN, ARV & ERW by looking at them as a COLLECTIVE compilation of probabilities of similar geology being AVERAGED and recognized throughout this collection of nearology land parcels which would collectively be much larger than AZS.
O.K , so if we then take the SUM total of the collective current valuation of these companies , we arrive at a current cumulative market cap valuation of $179.03 million.
From there we also know that AZS has moved up even more from the second bid of $3.52 to now $3.85 .
So then if we use the current market cap of AZS of $1.761 billion and we argue that 17% is the value were the ' Collective ' other value should be relative to the early stage that AZS was at when it was 50 cents - then you can then mount a reasonable case that valuations for these collective potential other prospective companies ( assuming geology proves correct ) should be valued currently at $299.37 million which is 67.2% higher than were we are now.
Of course that would put a price target for RD of 6.5 cents , GRE 91.1 cents , ARV 4.5 cents , and ERW at a price target of 25 cents.
Of course all of this will have to play itself out with the drill bit and further results , but on the surface if the area is as prolific with lithium as we are coming to know each day , then there is at least one argument that could suggest that ' collectively ' , ALL of these plays are currently 40% undervalued relative to where AZS was at the same time when it was just proving up its geology and long before and M&A activity which we know is now circling many plays in the lithium space.
And the other fact here which further supports this thesis is that we now have FAR more broader geological results and knowledge of the trends courtesy of this earlier activities by AZS. ......., so then broadly speaking you could also argue that collectively , these other companies should be at least where AZS was on the same relative exploration timeline it had experienced.
And the RDNO's seem to be laying out this potential escalation in near term valuation.
Going to be really exciting for all these companies as we lead into the close of this calendar year.
Been watching it virtually every minute of every day since I bought them. Waiting patiently to FREE carry them on just a small parcel tipped out.
And to think that was only 10 days ago when I first predicted these movements when the SP was 3.9 cents ....and only 5 days since it was 4.3 cents.Anyway , looking back , I am so glad I soaked most of those available RDNO's at point 4 of a cent.And as they say , No Risk- No Reward....But ya do gotta love it when you back yourself in on the know and it plays out exactly as you called it.
