Just another weekly update from me.
I know most don't like non-holders posting and maybe I wouldn't be surprised if few get back to me on not so good words, but that is part and parcel of posting on HC. If all posts were positive, and in fact it was mostly positive over here, but that didn't stop the SP to fall nearly 50% from 8 to 4.1. For my defence, I was a recent holder, watching for another entry, and my posts have been consistent - right from my first post here, I have said I will follow certain rules and playing according to that. As I mentioned in my last post, I exited last week at average 7. But ..
.On a weekly perspective, we did lose. Last week we had finished at 5.4 and this week at 4.3 - so decent. Also lost key support of 4.6.
So what is happening now? Like last week, I believe, there will be 2 theories.
Positive - Reading thru the posts I can see a lot of positive posts with many wait firm hand, either adding at this dip, or waiting for reversal. Some waiting for some gaps, some news etc which will mark the reversal. Many believe there is a very good possibility of something big here and that's possible, considering the land, previous results etc - but we will still need confirmation from a drill result. By the time confirmation comes, SP could have gone much up, so it suits some who want to take risk for a bigger gain.
Negative - There is a possibility that stock is now doing what other 70 to 80 ASX Li stocks have already done or or are doing. As I mentioned repeatedly, most Li stocks have gone thru Stage 1 (hope/potential/hype) where stocks gain between 100% to 500% or even more. Then they play Stage 2 (Reality) and come down back to where they started - this period could be extended one. From a pattern perspective, just looking at current rise - ERW/GRE/RDN all started going up big in early Nov. Big gains were made. Now all 3 are coming down. ERW from 28 to 14, GRE from 99 to 46, RDN from 8 to 4.1 - all losing roughly around 50%. So that is the pattern of rise and fall. This does not mean all have to follow same path. 6 months back around 8th May - ODE/VSR/ZEU went ballistic, gaining few 100% in a short time. But when they reached Stage 2 (Reality), all of them came back near their original position, losing up to 80% or more from their highs. Same pattern by a number of Canadian stocks, last year many ASX Li stocks etc.
I know many may not like what I have written, and I can understand. Each stock is different, and they can carve their own path. We have had big success at AZS and WC8. At the WC8 thread, people are comparing notes how long they holding, and many there already with 20 bags, even 35 bags. So when success happens, it can be life changing. Unfortunately stats for success is not very good - at this stage its pointing that out of every 50 Li stocks, one may reach success. So not easy. I am just putting stats here - not saying this should happen, or may happen. Each of us have a different risk/reward and my risk/reward is to follow probability until confirmation - said a few times, so hopefully some will understand.
So what may happen this week? I think RDN needs to get over 4.6 first and stay there, next 5.2 or so, but a big one is 6.1. Downside, I feel 3.6 should act as big support if 3.9 fails. After breaching 4.6, last 4 days it has gone above that but now not able to stay up. May need a catalyst - some news etc, or a big buyer to make the next big move upwards.
For those interested how stock is tracking against other Lithium stocks or who hold multiple Lithium stocks, I do a Weekly Report across 96 ASX Li stocks. It has got Weekly/Yearly data how stocks are tracking. I also have commentary across general markets and sector. Those just holding specific stocks, it may not be relevant, so please ignore.
Here is the report for this week.
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https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/sya-weekly-report.6951924/page-2#post-71235738
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(20min delay)