Daily Discussion, page-7230

Playing with Li macro?
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From a weekly perspective, a decent drop, moved from 3.6 to 3.2. Last from 4.4 to 3.6. Before that, it moved from 4.8 to 4.4. And even before that from 5.2 to 4.8. So big drop in last 4 weeks. From 5.2 to 3.2. In 4 weeks. Every week dropping. Its best not to live in illusion, the fact is RDN is playing weak. Li sector is playing weak.
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So where is RDN now? Its playing in a weak zone. Unfortunately, Li macro is playing very weak. I know I use ALB as a barometer, and many others a means to ridicule me, but I will stick to what I have been saying for months. ALB at 128 is neutral, below that weakness. Yesterday it closed at 108, touching 107. Extreme weakness. 52 week low is at 106. It's in danger tonight to be breached. Most Li stocks will suffer if we breach, and panic if it falls below 100.
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Li sector is doldrums. We have to accept it. GL1 couple of years back was flagship Li stock. Today, its market cap is same as RDN. Either GL1 has to rise or RDN has to fall. Otherwise its not making sense. I don't want to make a call. Its for each of us.
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Personally, couple of weeks back I wrote I exited at 4.7 my buys from 2.7 average. I have not yet bought. I am watching.
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This is what I wrote last week - "Overall markets, especially Li sector, not looking great. Odds of going down is higher than going up, unfortunately. Please don't bash me for this statement. I am saying what I feel looks like happening, I could be wrong. But most importantly, whatever happens, I am not the reason. So please spare me. But if one were asking what may happen - I would say odds of going lower is more than going up. Numbers? 3 needs to hold. For something positive, get over 4.1. Rest is usual noise". It still stands..
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The overall markets and Li sector is not looking great currently. Plus ASX tax transactions coming up. Could be a volatile June months. But any announcement of our own will get over those hurdles quickly. At this stage for me its not looking great. Lets hope ALB makes good ground tonight. If not, it bring the sector down, including RDN. We could be in some trouble if Li macro doesn't improve, I was mild, I am thinking big trouble. I hope it doesn't happen that way. But its best to follow price action. All the best.
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