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I know many over here are for long term perspective. What I write here is for short-term trades. So most can ignore the post as it may not be relevant to them.
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On a weekly perspective, finally some gain, from 3.3 to 3.8. So a welcome change, as we saw 4 weeks of decline from 6.8 to 3.3 losing over 50%. From a range perspective, between 3.3 and 4,4, which was slightly better than last week of 3.1 to 4.4. But finished in the middle of the range this week, last week on the lower side of range..
So what is happening now? As I have been writing for last 2 weeks, I still feel its in holding pattern for now. A big rise had happened. And a big drop has also happened. Now its settling down I feel. Still slightly volatile, which means any rises could be sold into. On Friday an announcement was made, not a strong one, but I feel one last effort to get oppies over the line - but as I was thinking any rises without any substantial news may get sold into - and I feel that is what happened. So although made another attempt towards the big resistance around mid 4s, had to retreat back to where it started..
Last week I had mentioned how ARV/ERW/GRE/RDN all started rising in beginning of Nov and all made 100 to 200% gain, and now all have nearly given back all the gains. So its not unusual all are sitting closer towards their points before rally in Nov started. Just comparing market caps - ERW (10m), ARV/GRE (around 30m) and RDN (around 100m). ERW did not have good results. GRE just completed diamond drilling. No another Stage 1 hype in ARV/GRE as of now. They already did one in Nov, its not easy to repeat it, but keeping an eye, as on results anticipation there can be one.
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So what can be next price movements for RDN? Rock chip results in mid- Jan a possibility. Heritage clearance. Good results by GRE maybe. Some big entity joining hand, but they already did something with FQM, so not sure. But some entity joining hands also has not come out well. Look at MQR/LIT/KAI/TKM - all big entities joined - all had a pump of 100 to 200%, all are now below where they started having given back all. Why? At the end - Stage 2 (Reality/Drill Results) they do the talking. But if someone joins, a Stage 1 type of rally can still happen.
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Reading thru the posts it would seem that RDN is the cusp of becoming a billion dollar stock. Its possible, but those risk averse should look at statistics. Over 80 Li stocks in last year or two tried to play nearology and every one failed. Except for AZS/WC8 we don't have good stories. Nearly 30 or 40 stocks bought land in Canada around PMT, every announcement talking how great is PMT - all stocks made huge gains 100 to 500%, all stocks now back at deck after facing reality, not a single success - many now below their original price. The darlings of yesterday, CXO/SYA/WR1/AGY/LTR etc all facing tough times. Why am I writing this? Just to show its not easy.
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But if success comes its a big one. 1000s of percentage gain is easy. Both AZS and WC8 have shown it. So I can understand why many want to take a chance. Its individual risk/reward, and I feel its fine from that perspective.
Personally, (writing same as I wrote last week) - I have not yet bought. I am watching. Stock is in volatile phase, want it to settle down, otherwise all gains may be sold into - not necessarily, probability wise.
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For those interested how stock is tracking against other Lithium stocks or who hold multiple Lithium stocks, I do a Weekly Report across 96 ASX Li stocks. It has got Weekly/Yearly data how stocks are tracking. I also have commentary across general markets and sector. Those just holding specific stocks, it may not be relevant, so please ignore.
Here is the report for this week.
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https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/sya-weekly-report.6951924/page-2#post-71604485
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(20min delay)
