13th February 2024
Tuesday
A significant news announcement is on the horizon, with New Zealand, Great Britain, Switzerland, and the United States all preparing to release important economic data. New Zealand is poised to unveil its quarterly Inflation Expectations, while Great Britain will disclose its Claimant Count Change figures. Switzerland will release its monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the United States will announce both its Core CPI and CPI readings. These updates are eagerly anticipated by economists and investors worldwide as they provide crucial insights into the economic conditions of these nations.
NZD - Inflation Expectations q/q
Business managers regularly assess their expectations for annual price changes in goods and services over the next two years, with these assessments released quarterly approximately 50 days before each quarter concludes. These inflation expectations can influence actual inflation rates as they may lead to wage demands from workers when they anticipate rising prices. This data is derived from a survey conducted with approximately 100 consumers, querying them about their price expectations for goods and services 24 months into the future.
In New Zealand, inflation expectations for the fourth quarter of 2023 dropped to 2.76 %, down from 2.83 % in the third quarter of the same year. Over the period from 1987 to 2023, New Zealand's average inflation expectations stood at 2.54 %, with a peak of 8.30 % in the third quarter of 1987 and a notable low of 1.24 % in the second quarter of 2020.
Predictions suggest a minor drop in the forecast to2.6%,down from the previous result of2.76%.
The upcoming release of theNew Zealand Inflation Expectationsq/qis set forTuesday the 13th of February at 2:00 AM GMT.
The last time,New Zealand Inflation Expectations q/qwas announced on the 8th of November, 2023. You may find the market reaction chart(NZDUSD M5) below:
GBP - Claimant Count Change
The Claimant Count, updated on a monthly basis approximately 16 days after the conclusion of each month, is traditionally viewed as a lagging indicator. Nonetheless, it carries substantial significance as it portrays the count of individuals currently without employment. This metric plays a vital role in signaling the overall economic health, given the robust connection between consumer spending and labor market dynamics. Furthermore, unemployment continues to be a critical factor in influencing the decision-making of authorities responsible for shaping the nation's monetary policies.
The United Kingdom's (UK) ILO Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.2% in the three months leading up to November, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) last Tuesday. This figure aligned with market expectations for the November quarter. The report further detailed that the number of people claiming jobless benefits rose by 11.7K in December, marking a significant increase from the 0.6K rise in November. In terms of employment changes, November saw an addition of 73K jobs, surpassing the 50K job gain recorded in October. Additionally, the Average Earnings excluding Bonus in the UK experienced a 6.6% year-over-year increase in November, a slight decrease from the 7.2% rise in October and in line with market forecasts. Meanwhile, Average Earnings including Bonus also witnessed a growth, albeit at a slower pace of 6.5%, compared to the 7.2% increase in October and below the anticipated 6.8% rise. These figures are considered crucial indicators of the UK's economic health and labor market trends.
TL;DR
Indicator Current Figure Previous Figure Market Expectation 1 ILO Unemployment Rate (3 months to Nov) 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 2 Jobless Claims Change (Dec) +11.7K +0.6K - 3 Employment Change (Nov) +73K +50K - 4 Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (YoY Nov) 6.6% 7.2% 6.6% 5 Average Earnings Including Bonus (YoY Nov) 6.5% 7.2% 6.8%
The predicted figure forClaimant Count Changesuggests a decrease to6,000from the former result of11,700.
OnTuesday, the 13th of February at 7:00 AM GMT, Great Britain will unveil itsClaimant Count Change data.
CHF - CPI m/m
The measure described reflects the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, and is released monthly, approximately three days after the end of each month. It represents the earliest major inflation data released by any country, providing insights just days after the month concludes. Consumer prices, which account for a majority of overall inflation, are crucial for currency valuation because rising prices may prompt the central bank to increase interest rates to fulfill its mandate of containing inflation. This is achieved by sampling the average price of various goods and services and comparing it to the previous sampling.
In December 2023, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Switzerland remained static, showing no deviation from the figures of the preceding month. This stability in the month-on-month inflation rate is consistent with the country's historical pattern, where the average monthly inflation rate has been approximately 0.18 % from 1950 to 2023. The CPI experienced its highest surge in November 1973, reaching an unprecedented peak of 2.10 %, and witnessed its most significant decline in July 2004, when it plummeted to a record low of -1.00 %.
TheCPI m/mforecast suggests a rise to0.3%,up from the previous reading of0%.
The next release of theCPI m/mis set forTuesday the 13th of February, at 7:30 AM GMT.
The last time, theSwiss CPI m/mwas announced on the 8th of January, 2024. You may find the market reaction chart(CHFJPY M5) below:
USD - Core CPI m/m
Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding food and energy components, measures changes in the cost of goods and services purchased by consumers. This economic indicator is released on a monthly basis, approximately 16 days after the month concludes. While food and energy prices contribute significantly to CPI, their volatility can distort the underlying trend. The Federal Open Market Committee and traders typically prioritize the Core CPI data, which excludes these volatile components. Consumer prices hold a substantial weight in overall inflation, making inflation a crucial factor influencing currency valuation. As inflation rises, central banks often respond by increasing interest rates to fulfill their mandate of containing inflation. This measure is also known as CPI Ex Food and Energy or Underlying CPI.
In December 2023, the core US consumer price index, which omits fluctuating items like food and energy, increased by 0.3% from the prior month, mirroring the rise in November and aligning with expectations. The rate of price growth for services, excluding those related to energy, moderated to 0.4% from 0.5% the previous month, with a notable slowdown in transportation service costs to 0.1% from 1.1%. Conversely, expenses for housing rose more rapidly at 0.5% compared to 0.4% previously, and medical care services saw a higher increase at 0.7% up from 0.6%. In the goods sector, there was a recovery in the prices of clothing (0.1% after a 1.3% decrease), new vehicles (0.3% after a 0.1% decrease), and alcoholic drinks (0.3% after a 0.1% decrease). On the other hand, the cost for used cars and trucks saw a decrease to 0.5% from 1.6%, and there was a drop in prices for medical care products (-0.1% from 0.5%) and tobacco-related items (-0.1% from 1.1%).
TL;DR
Category December 2023 Change November 2023 Change 1 Core CPI (Month-on-Month) +0.3% +0.3% 2 Services Excluding Energy +0.4% +0.5% 3 - Transportation Services +0.1% +1.1% 4 - Housing +0.5% +0.4% 5 - Medical Care Services +0.7% +0.6% 6 Goods - - 7 - Clothing +0.1% (recovery) -1.3% 8 - New Vehicles +0.3% (recovery) -0.1% 9 - Alcoholic Drinks +0.3% (recovery) -0.1% 10 - Used Cars and Trucks -0.5% -1.6% 11 - Medical Care Products -0.1% +0.5% 12 - Tobacco -0.1% +1.1%
TheCore CPI m/mforecast stands at0.3%,mirroring the previous result.
The last time, theUS Core CPI m/mwas announced on the 11th of January, 2024. You may find the market reaction chart(GBPUSD M5) below:
USD - CPI m/m
Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the fluctuation in the cost of goods and services acquired by consumers. It is published on a monthly basis, approximately 16 days after the conclusion of the respective month. Consumer prices play a pivotal role in determining overall inflation rates. Inflation is of significant importance in the context of currency valuation, as escalating prices prompt central banks to consider increasing interest rates in order to fulfill their mandate of controlling inflation. The CPI is computed by sampling the average prices of diverse goods and services and comparing them with previous samples.
In December 2023, US consumer prices witnessed a 0.3% increase over the previous month, marking the highest rise in three months, which exceeded the anticipated 0.2% and followed a 0.1% increase in November. A significant portion of this monthly rise in overall prices was driven by the shelter index, which went up by 0.5%, compared to 0.4% in the preceding month. Additionally, there was a 1.5% increase in the motor vehicle insurance index, up from the 1% rise seen in November. The index for used cars and trucks also saw an increase, albeit a smaller one of 0.5%, following a more substantial 1.6% increase in November. Other areas that saw price increases included recreation, new vehicles, education, and airline fares. The energy sector experienced a 0.4% increase, with the electricity index rising by 1.3% and the gasoline index by 0.2%, which more than compensated for a 0.4% decrease in the natural gas index. The food index saw a consistent 0.2% rise, mirroring the increase in November. In contrast, there were declines in certain indexes, such as household furnishings & operations, which fell by 0.4%, and personal care, which decreased by 0.3%.
TL;DR
Category December 2023 Change 1 Overall Consumer Prices +0.3% 2 Shelter Index +0.5% 3 Motor Vehicle Insurance +1.5% 4 Used Cars and Trucks +0.5% 5 Recreation Increase 6 New Vehicles Increase 7 Education Increase 8 Airline Fares Increase 9 Energy Sector +0.4% 10 - Electricity +1.3% 11 - Gasoline +0.2% 12 - Natural Gas -0.4% 13 Food Index +0.2% 14 Household Furnishings & Operations -0.4% 15 Personal Care -0.3%
The upcomingCPI m/m report suggests a modest decline in the month-on-month inflation rate, with expectations pointing to adecreasefrom the previous figure of0.3% to 0.2%.
The last time, theUS CPI m/mwas announced on the 11th of January, 2024. You may find the market reaction chart(GBPUSD M5) below:
USD - CPI y/y
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures fluctuations in the cost of goods and services acquired by consumers. It is published monthly, typically around 16 days after the conclusion of the respective month. Notably, this data is reported without seasonal adjustments. Consumer prices are a significant component of overall inflation, making CPI a key indicator. Inflation holds significance in the context of currency valuation as it often prompts central banks to consider raising interest rates in pursuit of their mandate to contain inflation. The CPI is calculated by sampling and comparing the average prices of a variety of goods and services over time.
In December 2023, the annual inflation rate in the US rose to 3.4% from a five-month low of 3.1% in November, surpassing market expectations of 3.2%. This increase was attributed to a slower decline in energy prices. Energy costs fell by 2%, compared to a 5.4% drop in November, with gasoline prices decreasing by 1.9% (versus an 8.9% decline), utility (piped) gas service dropping by 13.8% (compared to a 10.4% decrease), and fuel oil prices plummeting by 14.7% (against a 24.8% fall). Meanwhile, the rate of price increases moderated for food (2.7% versus 2.9%), shelter (6.2% versus 6.5%), new vehicles (1% versus 1.3%), apparel (1% versus 1.1%), medical care commodities (4.7% versus 5%), and transportation services (9.7% versus 10.1%), while prices for used cars and trucks continued their downward trend, dropping by 1.3% compared to a 3.8% fall in the previous month. The annual core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, softened to 3.9%, remaining below the 4% recorded in the preceding period but still above the anticipated 3.8%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices in December increased by 0.3%, marking the largest rise in three months and exceeding the predicted 0.2%.
TL;DR
Category Annual Change (Dec 2023) Annual Change (Nov 2023) 1 Annual Inflation Rate 3.4% 3.1% 2 Energy Costs -2% -5.4% 3 - Gasoline -1.9% -8.9% 4 - Utility Gas Service -13.8% -10.4% 5 - Fuel Oil -14.7% -24.8% 6 Food 2.7% 2.9% 7 Shelter 6.2% 6.5% 8 New Vehicles 1% 1.3% 9 Apparel 1% 1.1% 10 Medical Care Commodities 4.7% 5% 11 Transportation Services 9.7% 10.1% 12 Used Cars and Trucks -1.3% -3.8% 13 Core Inflation Rate (excl. Food & Energy) 3.9% 4% 14 Monthly Consumer Prices Increase +0.3% -
The forecast for theUS CPI y/yis reading a decreased2.9%.
The forthcoming release of allCPI data is scheduled forTuesday the 13th of February, at 1:30 PM GMT.
The last time, the US CPI y/y was announced on the 11th of January, 2024. You may find the market reaction chart(GBPUSD M5) below:
