19thJanuary 2024
Friday
Friday, January 19th, ismarked as a key date for economic announcements from both Great Britain and theUnited States. Great Britain is poised to release its monthly Retail Salesfigures, providing insights into consumer spending trends. Simultaneously, theUnited States will be disclosing its Preliminary University of MichiganConsumer Sentiment Index, offering a snapshot of consumer confidence andeconomic outlook in the country.
GBP - RetailSales m/m
Monthly Retail Sales serve as the primary indicator of consumer expenditure, which constitutes the bulk of total economic activity.
In November 2023, the United Kingdom experienced a substantial surge in retail sales, which rose by 1.3% from the previous month, significantly outperforming market expectations of a 0.4% increase and marking the strongest growth since January. This upswing was largely attributed to a 2.3% increase in non-food store sales, a notable jump from October's modest 0.2% rise, with retailers citing early Black Friday sales and extensive discounting campaigns as key drivers. Household goods sales also saw a remarkable rise, climbing by 3.5%.
In addition, food stores reported a 0.8% growth in sales, slightly up from the 0.1% increase in October. Sales of automotive fuel also grew, rising by 0.6%, likely aided by falling fuel prices. Meanwhile, non-store retailing, primarily online sales, registered a modest increase of 0.2%.
On a year-over-year basis, retail sales in November edged up by 0.1%, recovering from a revised decline of 2.5% in October. This annual increase was more favorable than the anticipated 1.3% decrease forecasted by market analysts.
TL;DR
Category
Monthly Growth (Nov 2023)
Comments
1 Overall Retail Sales
+1.3%
Strongest growth since January, surpassing expectations of +0.4%
2 Non-Food Store Sales
+2.3%
Significant jump from October's +0.2%
3 Household Goods Sales
+3.5%
Remarkable rise
4 Food Stores Sales
+0.8%
Slight increase from October's +0.1%
5 Automotive Fuel Sales
+0.6%
Likely aided by falling fuel prices
6 Non-Store Retailing
+0.2%
Primarily online sales
7 Year-Over-Year Growth
+0.1%
Recovery from a revised -2.5% in October, better than the expected -1.3% decrease
The forecast for Great Britain's monthly Retail Sales indicates a decrease, with a projected figure of 0.4%, which is lower compared to the previous outcome of 1.3%.
The upcoming Retail Sales m/m data is scheduled for release on January 19th at 07:00 AM GMT.
The last time, the British Retail Sales m/m was announced on the 22nd of December, 2023. You may find the market reaction chart (GBPJPY M5) below:
USD - PreliminaryUniversity of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Consumer financial confidence, recognized as a key predictor of consumer spending that makes up a significant portion of all economic activities, is gauged through a survey of approximately 500 consumers. This survey asks participants to evaluate the present and future economic conditions.
In December 2023, the University of Michigan's US Consumer Sentiment Index was revised upwards to a five-month high of 69.7, from an initial estimate of 69.4. This revision came as a result of significant improvements in consumer perceptions of inflation's trajectory. Inflation expectations for the coming year were adjusted down to 3.1% from November's 4.5%, reaching the lowest point since March 2021, aligning with the preliminary estimate. Furthermore, the five-year inflation outlook was slightly higher than initially thought at 2.9%, compared to the first estimate of 2.8%, but still down from November's 3.2%. Additionally, the component of the index that measures consumer expectations rose more than first estimated to 67.4 (versus 66.4 in the preliminary estimate and 56.8 in November), while the gauge for current economic conditions increased to 73.3, although it was slightly below the initial estimate of 74, but still higher than the previous month's 68.3.
TL;DR
Component
December 2023 (Final)
December 2023 (Preliminary)
November 2023
Remarks
1 Overall Sentiment Index
69.7
69.4
-
Revised upwards, a five-month high
2 Inflation Expectation (1 Year)
3.1%
(Aligned with Preliminary)
4.5%
Lowest since March 2021
3 Inflation Expectation (5 Years)
2.9%
2.8%
3.2%
Slightly higher than initial estimate
4 Consumer Expectations
67.4
66.4
56.8
Rose more than first estimated
5 Current Economic Conditions
73.3
74
68.3
Slightly below initial estimate but higher than previous month
The projected forecast for the PreliminaryUoM Consumer Sentiment data suggests a modest decline, moving from the previous reading of 69.7 to an anticipated 68.8.
The upcoming Preliminary UoMConsumer Sentiment data is scheduled for release on Friday, January19th, at 3:00 PM GMT.
The last time, the US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment data was announced on 22nd of December, 2023. You may find the market reaction chart (EURUSD M5) below:
