30thJanuary 2024
Tuesday
The UnitedStates is poised for a pivotal day on January 30th, with key economicindicators set to be unveiled. The nation awaits the release of the ConsumerConfidence Index by the Conference Board, a critical measure of the economicoutlook from the consumer perspective. In addition, the Job Openings and LaborTurnover Survey (JOLTS) data will be announced, providing insights into thecurrent state of job openings across the country. These releases are expectedto shed light on the economic health of the U.S. and could have significantimplications for markets and policy decisions.
USD - CB Consumer Confidence
Financialconfidence, a pivotal indicator of consumer spending that constitutes a majorportion of overall economic activity, is assessed through a survey ofapproximately 3,000 households, where participants are asked to evaluatecurrent and future economic conditions, including labor availability, businessconditions, and the general economic situation.
In December, theConference Board Consumer Confidence Index saw an increase to 110.7, up from arevised 101.0 in November. This rise was attributed to improved perceptions ofcurrent business conditions and job prospects, as reflected in the PresentSituation Index climbing to 148.5. Additionally, the Expectations Index, whichgauges short-term income, business, and labor market outlook, jumped to 85.6,returning to levels of optimism last seen in July. According to Dana Peterson,Chief Economist at The Conference Board, December's boost in confidence waswidespread across all age groups and income levels, with significant gains inthe 35-54 age group and households earning above $125,000. Despite ongoingconcerns about rising prices, political issues, interest rates, and globalconflicts decreased as primary concerns. The perceived likelihood of a U.S.recession in the next year also diminished, reaching its lowest point in 2023,though a significant portion still anticipates a potential downturn in 2024.
TL;DR
·Consumer Confidence Index roseto 110.7 in December, up from November's 101.0.
·Present Situation Index at148.5; Expectations Index at 85.6, matching July's optimism.
·Confidence gains across all ageand income groups, notably among 35-54 and those earning above $125,000.
·Concerns about prices,politics, interest rates, and conflicts lessened.
·Lowest recession likelihood for2023 noted, but 2024 downturn concerns remain.
The CBConsumer Confidence forecast suggests a modest increase from the previousreading of 110.7 to 111.5.
The upcomingrelease of the USCB ConsumerConfidence report is scheduled for announcement January 30th at 3:00 PM GMT.
The last time, US CBConsumer Confidence report was announced on the 20th ofDecember, 2023. You may find the market reaction chart (AUDUSD M5) below:USD - JOLTS Job Openings
Despite itsdelayed release compared to other data, traders closely monitor thisinformation due to its significant potential to impact the market. The numberof job vacancies serves as an early indicator of the broader employmentsituation, underscoring its importance for market participants.
In November2023, the number of job openings decreased by 62,000 compared to the previousmonth, reaching 8.790 million. This marked the lowest level since March 2021and fell below the market consensus of 8.85 million. It was the thirdconsecutive month of declines in US job openings, reflecting the ongoing easingof labor market conditions. During the month, job openings decreased intransportation, warehousing, and utilities (-128,000) as well as in the federalgovernment (-58,000). On the other hand, job openings increased in wholesaletrade (+63,000). In terms of regional distribution, job openings fell in the South(-128,000), the Northeast (-29,000), and the West (-7,000), but they rose inthe Midwest (+102,000).
TL;DR
Category
Change
Details
1 Total Job Openings
-62,000
Decreased to 8.790 million, lowest since March 2021.
2 Market Consensus
Below
Fell below the expected 8.85 million.
3 Consecutive Declines
3rd Month
Third consecutive month of decline.
4 Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities
-128,000
Significant decrease in job openings.
5 Federal Government
-58,000
Decrease in job openings.
6 Wholesale Trade
+63,000
Increase in job openings.
7 Regional Distribution:
8 - South
-128,000
Decrease in job openings.
9 - Northeast
-29,000
Decrease in job openings.
10 - West
-7,000
Slight decrease in job openings.
11 - Midwest
+102,000
Increase in job openings.
Projections forthe JOLTS Job Openings suggest a modest drop to 8.69 million,down from the previous figure of 8.79 million.
The upcomingrelease of JOLTS Job Openings is scheduled for January 30th at 3:00PM GMT.
The last time, the US JOLTS Job Openingswas announced on the 3rd of January, 2024. You may find the marketreaction chart (GBPUSD M5) below:
