Most of your argument is based on your assumptions of what is going to happen in the future. In terms of right now, if Afterpay wanted to repay their CNs they would need to issue 14.6m shares which is 5% of their current shares on issue. For Zip to repay their CNs they would need to issue 56m shares which is 10% of their current shares on issue. Right now, Zip is faced with significantly greater repayment/refinance risk.
All of your other arguments relate to your perception of relative value between Afterpay and Zip. We can argue about this until the cows come home but ultimately the CN holders for Afterpay and Zip struck a deal in which they were happy to invest - no-one was holding a gun to the head of those institutions which invested $1.5b in Afterpay CNs.
I don't know how you can say that "proof is evidently coming to fruition" as both Zip and Afterpay are down 23% from the Reference Price for their respective CN issues and Zip has fallen significantly further from its all time high than Afterpay has.
Daily Price Movement / General Discussion, page-17959
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Last
$1.58 |
Change
-0.120(7.08%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.774B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $1.72 | $1.72 | $1.57 | $42.26M | 26.16M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | 19469 | $1.58 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $1.58 | 33400 | 3 |
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| Last trade - 16.10pm 15/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| ZIP (ASX) Chart |