ZIP

1.99%

$2.96 zip co limited..

So with these metrics in comparison to Affirm your...

First 28013 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
HLV693

429 Posts.

208

10/09/21

16:55

Post #: 55980221
Share

Originally posted by Andredamus1: ↑

For those of you losing faith in Zip, I thought it worthwhile sharing some analysis. For the purpose of this analysis, I am focussing purely on Zip's US business (Quadpay) and all numbers are in US$ (converted from A$ @ 0.74).

Affirm reported their 4th quarter and FY21 results overnight. Revenue for the year was $870m and customers at 30 June 2021 were 7.121m. At the top end of their guidance range, they are forecasting revenue to grow by 37% in FY22 to ~$1.2b. Their guidance also indicates that TTV in 1Q22 will be essentially identical to 4Q21 ($2.5b). Based on after hours indications, Affirm has a market cap of $28b (using an SP of $105.50 - 15% up on Thursday's close).

Quadpay's FY21 revenue was $140m (16% of Affirm's) and customers at 30 June 21 were 4.4m (62% of Affirm's). Whilst Zip does not provide guidance, they indicated that Quadpay's TTV was up 240% against pcp for the first 6 weeks of FY22. If this is maintained for the remainder of the quarter that would translate to 1Q22 TTV of $755m (30% of Affirm's guidance) or 19% growth on 4Q21. Zip in total has a market cap of $2.85b (10% of Affirm's).

Considering their relative market position and current growth rates, I struggle to see how Quadpay is not worth at least 25% of Affirm, or $7b (~A$17 per Zip share). Even if you cut that valuation in half, it leaves you with $8.50 per Zip share and you are getting everything apart from Quadpay for free.

With M&A in the BNPL sector only just getting started (Square acquiring Afterpay and PayPal acquiring Paidy), the metrics of Quadpay will not be ignored forever and I believe it is a highly appealing acquisition target for both Klarna and Affirm. Whilst recent SP performance has been disappointing (to say the least), I believe that the underlying business continues to perform extremely well.

Obviously this is all IMO and should in no way be construed as advice.

Expand

So with these metrics in comparison to Affirm your conservatively estimating Quadpay at $17 per share. And this does not factor in Zip Aus, Zip UK, Zip NZ, Zip Canada, Zip Mexico, Spotii, Twisto, Tendopay and Payflex lol.

It just goes to show that listing in the US market is imperative. There is no comparison between the ASX and US equity market. That is where Zip will truly become a global powerhouse. Yet, they have shown little to no interest to reach that point.

Until then, management need to get on top of their investor relations and take every opportunity to announce meaningful partnerships or strategic updates to improve the very poor market sentiment.

Last edited by HLV693: 10/09/21

Z1P Price at posting: $6.87 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
16 Upvote

2 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

'We're looking': Nickel-rich Indonesia sounds graphite warning to Aus producers

MKT

The ASX can overlook its Telecomm small-caps. Here’s one diversified brand with an international footprint

MIN

Movers and Shakers: Zip Co, MinRes, Kuniko, more – The week's top ASX gainers

Palladium's the newest geopolitical hot commodity. But ASX exposure is limited

Making money: How many microcaps should be in an investor's portfolio?

What each US election outcome would mean for Australian companies & investors

Aussie inflation seemingly hit a 3 year low. So why's the ASX200 red?

Bitcoin hits fresh record as instos pile into BTC ETFs – and Trump helps, too

The Altcoin Landscape (Part 1): Key alternative cryptocurrencies to watch

Week 44 Wrap: Relatively boring week ahead of US election; HotCopper's most watched; Oz inflation at 3.5%

There are more pages in this discussion • 18,549 more messages in this thread...

First 28013 Last

Add ZIP (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last $2.96		Change -0.060(1.99%)		Mkt cap ! $3.864B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$2.96	$3.00	$2.91	$20.97M	7.100M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	15999	$2.96

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$2.97	99192	8

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	15999	2.960
7	53590	2.950
3	26000	2.940
3	15000	2.930
8	48078	2.920

Price($)	Vol.	No.
2.970	42700	4
2.980	41500	3
2.990	87998	3
3.000	70178	11
3.010	14331	2

Last trade - 16.10pm 01/11/2024 (20 minute delay)

ZIP (ASX) Chart

So with these metrics in comparison to Affirm your...

'We're looking': Nickel-rich Indonesia sounds graphite warning to Aus producers

The ASX can overlook its Telecomm small-caps. Here’s one diversified brand with an international footprint

Movers and Shakers: Zip Co, MinRes, Kuniko, more – The week's top ASX gainers

Palladium's the newest geopolitical hot commodity. But ASX exposure is limited

Making money: How many microcaps should be in an investor's portfolio?

What each US election outcome would mean for Australian companies & investors

Aussie inflation seemingly hit a 3 year low. So why's the ASX200 red?

Bitcoin hits fresh record as instos pile into BTC ETFs – and Trump helps, too

The Altcoin Landscape (Part 1): Key alternative cryptocurrencies to watch

Week 44 Wrap: Relatively boring week ahead of US election; HotCopper's most watched; Oz inflation at 3.5%

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

So with these metrics in comparison to Affirm your...

Top Stories

'We're looking': Nickel-rich Indonesia sounds graphite warning to Aus producers

The ASX can overlook its Telecomm small-caps. Here’s one diversified brand with an international footprint

Movers and Shakers: Zip Co, MinRes, Kuniko, more – The week's top ASX gainers

Palladium's the newest geopolitical hot commodity. But ASX exposure is limited

Making money: How many microcaps should be in an investor's portfolio?

What each US election outcome would mean for Australian companies & investors

Aussie inflation seemingly hit a 3 year low. So why's the ASX200 red?

Bitcoin hits fresh record as instos pile into BTC ETFs – and Trump helps, too

The Altcoin Landscape (Part 1): Key alternative cryptocurrencies to watch

Week 44 Wrap: Relatively boring week ahead of US election; HotCopper's most watched; Oz inflation at 3.5%

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News