It's a solid set of numbers, particularly the forward-growth potential, however a few points stick out to me:
- The report is for the previous 6 months - this includes customers struggling from COVID shutdown implications, particularly in Q1. The forward 6 months should look very different, in all its major markets.
- As I write this, Quadpay is currently ahead of APT in the US for Andriod, and within spitting distance on iOS - that is massive. Quadpay/Zip don't actually have to pull ahead of APT to help close the valuation gap - the fact they are even close lends weight to the argument this is undervalued.
- The trends for many of the metrics in the investor presentation are clearly showing the positive effect from a higher proportion of Pay in 4 transactions from Quadpay, which will only help to improve the overall business metrics going forward.
But despite all of this, there continues to be a disconnect between what the markets expect and the information management put out - we wanted to see info about the US roadshow, plain and simple. That article in the AFR was too detailed and too specific to have simply been a leak - if management put that out, knowing it would help lift the stock price, they should have known that the next major announcement date would need to include some info about it. Even something like the company received a very positive response and is now progressing to offer ADRs would have sufficed, and I would argue probably prevented this completely unnecessary flogging. Given how strong Quadpay is going it would likely have had a lot of interest from US investors, but, amongst many reasons, US investors buying Australian equities in AUD are going to get flogged when the Aussie dollar depreciates against the $US at some point in the future.
It was good to hear about how strong the business is going, it really is, but I want an update on that US roadshow and I want to hear about it soon.
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