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Goodfella58

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1921

19/09/21

17:04

Post #: 56187165
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Originally posted by Fastback6666: ↑

I thought I would throw these thoughts out there around future market growth of ZIP for people to mull over. It relates to growing BNPL sector versus competing for BNPL share.

BNPL TOTAL uptake in AUS/NZ for all companies is around 20% of retail transactions for ALL BNPL companies - we know this and ZIP has a very decent market share of this AUZ market. We can see growth slowing here as market is becoming more saturated but it is still growing - the numbers for ZIP are great - 214mil revenue and 3241mil TTV as of 30 June 21.

BNPL uptake in the US is somewhere between 1% to 2% Let’s say 1.5%) of all retail transactions for ALL BNPL companies. This is very low right ... compared to more mature BNPL markets - easy to see it’s early in adsorption and should grow naturally a lot from here especially with mainstream news in US now talking a lot about BNPL just recently and BNPL marketing ramping up. ZIP has only a market share within this 1.5% (let’s guess 0.25% of the retail market)which as we know from the Quadpay numbers in the last year were 176mil revenue and 2449mil TTV to 30 June 21 which is good numbers.

The growth of ZIP is multi level.

ZIP growth in market share competition - customers
and merchants versus other BNPL players - winning over/partnerships.

ZIP growth from more products

ZIP growth from Investors and major partners.

But our biggest growth will be just from sitting in the markets of countries who are still in early adoption and naturally(somewhat automatically) increasing in size due to market adoption of the move to BNPL.

With this in mind all ZIP needs to do to achieve a doubling of growth in the US and collect their same market share percentage is watch adoption of BNPL increase from 1.5 to 3% of all retail transactions (ZIP share moves from 0.25 to 0.5% guesstimate). When you look at it like that it seems actually pretty easy to achieve and this is before any new products are released and major partners onboarded. Year after that, increase from 3% to 6% and so on. AUZ at 20% and still growing. Think about it - think about the easy doubling over of revenue and TTV for many years to come, this is even before ZIP trying to win even more market share off other lager players.

This is not me trying to hype anything, I am just thinking logically about what is about to play out in the US and globally really. In AUZ we have known about BNPL for some time but we are a smaller fish, globally things are just warming up and I am glad I am in ZIP early enough to see this all play out and global adoption to fully take hold.

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Possibly but they have to support hundreds of millions of losses in the interim which are multiplied by operating in 13 territories.

More CR at ever decreasing prices are inevitable in my view

Z1P Price at posting: $6.84 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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