Eh, I'm working from home today, and have the time and inclination to flesh this out a bit, so you picked a good day to ask!
Serious question Juke, what could be a companies game plan, by being so poor at communications, either deliberately or inadvertently as it seems pretty easy to remedy the situation, or not?
Honestly, I believe they do not have a game plan when it comes to retail shareholders or the share price itself. Bruce has said as much: "The share price will take care of itself". And I think there is a degree of apathy and or arrogance when it comes to us retail holders. I suspect in their eyes, we have stumped up the cash, now we are supposed to shut up and let them get on with the job of getting to production. Look at the T20 - it has barely changed in the last four years. Our T1 is Sparta, with just 9% of the company. There's under 600M shares on issue and about 30% is held by the T20. That's the boys club right there.
If we do have to CR then a higher SP will benefit all won't it? An MD's retirement fund would be much larger wouldn't it?
The current negative sentiment won't continually have a dragging down of the SP? More people will possibly buy on a few well crafted announcements?
See above. Yes, a higher SP would be good for all, but that would require not just one strong announcement, but an actual comms strategy, backed by solid information, and fed to the public in a flashy manner. If you are missing any of those components, then it all becomes fluff. Some of our peers here in WA do great looking comms - but without any 'meat' by way of progress in submitting for approvals, I've not been prepared to part with any of my hard-earned to back them. I put some $ on one of the QLD plays when the Germans did, too, and perversely am in the green over there...
What is to gain by not announcing certain things regularly, be they fair, good or great announcements? Could certain investors be able to whisper in the ears of management so they can slowly accumulate but still stay clear of doing anything nefarious in nature? Surely any investment fund would be wanting to see some return in the short term with the hope of big returns later, otherwise wouldn't the people buying into these funds start bailing out on 2 years of declines?
My impression - and that is all it is - is that Cinnabon is very old school - I can't imagine he likes to delegate. And his focus is indeed on getting this thing into production. For someone like that, the soft and fuzzy of corporate comms is probably a distraction and or an interference. I mean they way he speaks about the EPA is not dis-similar, as though they are getting in his way (as opposed to understanding that he needs to place them).
I'm naïve enough to think that no one "has the ear" of the BOD (it's be illegal for starters) and that other than last year's very obvious price capping that was going on - 500k buy and sell walls to restrict trade range - the trading here is pretty much WYSIWYG. This fish is too small - and risk - for an investment fund to touch it - with the exception of our German friends, who have seeded big $ into a number of Australian silica plays to date. Considering they came in at (30c?) was a high, and have not sold down, is another thing that keeps me sleeping soundly at night.
OR is there value in flogging the SP to death and when the decision finally comes through the response of the current SP will be to shoot straight past a hypothetical SP that was slowly trending up if said announcements were regular? Then this momentum may keep tracking NE after consolidating initially well above 30-40c?
If it were a lifestyle type company then wouldn't there be a CR every few quarters?
Again, it comes back to Bruce not give a rats ar$e about the SP. He believes in what he is doing, is getting paid handsomely to play as a big boss, and if it all comes off, he will be very, very, rich - as will most of the T20. You need 5M shares to be in that club, and 19 of them didn't pay 30c to join (or 20c, or even 10c for that matter). They can afford to be patient.
I used to believe we would seriously re-rate either at EPA approval, or time of first shipment, bit IMHO, I think it will take publishing our financials for Y1 or even Y2 to make the market sit up and take notice. Solid proof that this thing can generate cash, and that three of them can generate rivers of cash.
For all my concerns about Cinnabon's capabilities, I do not believe this is a lifestyle company. The numbers are there, the actions - despite the bumbling - is there. It just has to all fall into place.
I read all the views and agree a lot with most of them but there has to be a reason for this and I don't understand enough about the market to put my finger on it and maybe no one can fully explain why but there must be a reason? Surely incompetence isn't the only reason as they would be getting advice from somewhere on how to run a public company? Or are they just too far out of their league and too proud, blind or arrogant to see it and not willing to bring in more qualified help?
HC forums are a funny place. There are some absolute Cinnabon fanbois here. Maybe that's youth, maybe that's inexperience. Maybe it's wishful thinking. But for anyone invested here to honestly NOT be concerned about the capabilities of the BoD, when we have been kept in the dark, or even mislead ("offtakes by Christmas") is head in the sand stuff. @Carna cops way too much cr@p for having a fact based slant on things. No, if you have money on the house here, and you are in the red, you don't like to hear that your budda has a glass jaw. But he's taken the time to do FOI's, and like a half dozen or so other posters here, has done the yard, checked out the facts, and has a generally informed opinion. I lean to Carna's side of the meter, and for that reason have pulled back from a lot of detailed discussion here - there's just not a lot more to say. The one mantra I have maintained, and will continue to preach, is that there is a good story to tell the market here, and we are not doing that at all, let alone badly.
As for the board, yes, I think it is (for retail holders, anyway) a toxic mix of pride, arrogance, and ignorance. It does smack of five-mates-trying-to-start-up-a-mining-company, slowly adding some informed people and consultants along the way, but still not letting go of the reins. That does let us run on the smell of an oily rag, but also means we are kept in the dark, and that great story is buried.
At the end of the day, remember that this is just my somewhat jaded take on this. I could be wrong. But I know I'm neither an up-ramper or down-ramper, just an LT holder. I made a very nice return on oppies a couple of years back, but am showing red in my SMSF right now, so of course I am hoping for success. Hopefully, just whether that will happen or not anytime soon will be revealed before the next AGM...
Not investment advice - all just my own ramblings.
As I have signed off in the past... DYOR - bring the receipts - GLTAH
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