Perceptive Advisors, a healthcare fund very experienced with these kinds of investments, put more money into Anteris in Feb of 2023 at $24, which was just below the market price at the time so it's not just retail investors that maybe should have waited.
But speculative investments are always going to be exceptionally volatile, especially if they are cash-hungry clinical stage biotechs. If you believe that the company will be able to complete the pivotal trial, which means that Wayne will be able to find ways to pay for it, then this is likely a set it and mostly forget it investment. The share price could run way up for whatever reason in the next few years before approval providing a very profitable exit point but it may take until after approval for the price to really appreciate.
Even if the fully diluted share count eventually doubles to more than 50 million shares, the current price is still likely cheap as long as you believe that the DurAVR will eventually be approved and are willing to potentially wait 5 years (I know some here have been waiting a long time already). In my opinion the most important part of making long-term speculative investments is having a position size that doesn't cause much worry while still providing the chance to make an amount of money that's significant to you.
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