Member AZZUMAH Email Address [email protected] Member Since 7-Dec-99 No. Connections 426 No. Posts 314
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fogarty states that 'current contracts on hand stand at $2.2 Billion'.An increase from $1.2 Bill a year ago and he is confident of winning 10 of the 16 large transit projects ERG is currently preparing to tender for!!With future earnings estimates difficult to bring to market because of delays and differing conditions with this type of work and with the $31 mill still to be added to bottom line at some stage....can anyone tell me that ERG at low 50s is not one of the better entry points for 2001. A 50c stock with 2.2 bill of contracts. Re rating the stock will eventually happen, the major concern as far as I can gather would be funding the contracts at this point.Just how is it done if revenues dont roll in for a couple of years??How can these projects be funded so their are no delays and how does a buisness stay liquid whilst still paying out for all the tender costs and the implementation costs....surely up front payments wont sustain the work?Can someone help answer these questions please. Yep, I hold ERG and comments always welcome.
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Member wrongway Email Address withheld Member Since 10-Feb-00 No. Connections 827 No. Posts 788
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- the half year report will i think show erg with a very strong balance sheet 40 mil from downer shares plus 46 mil from the rights issue plus around 100 mil from contract payments with that much again in the second half .wrongway
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Reply by bonkers to wrongway (2 of 14)
Message ERG...Contracts Wrongway---your help please Downer90 million (read 431 times; 4 replies) Conference ASX Posted Mon 31-Dec-01 12:34
Member bonkers Email Address withheld Member Since 26-Mar-01 No. Connections 725 No. Posts 412
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hi Wrongway---I note you do very accredited posts---I thought ERG raised ten million from the sale of Downer---is the figure more like 40 million now---I haven't been able to find out what they originally paid for the company. If it is 40 million--your looking at (roughly) a 90 million half year profit (including abnormals)-excluding abnormals--I think around 19.1 million--I haven't as you understand done it precisely--just on the back of an envelope. Would you be able to clarify this for me please? The 90 mill---I need to know the cost base--to calculate the capital gain. Cheers,--BK.
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Member sprocket99 Email Address [email protected] Member Since 1-Aug-99 No. Connections 523 No. Posts 145
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ERG received the Downer shares in part consideration for selling the Telecommunications manufacturing unit to them last year. if someone has ready access to the annual report, the notes to this transaction should say whether they have already booked it as profit or not - ERG have a tendency to "confuse" the equity line with the income line.
Even so, they have the shares and have converted them mostly to cash. I agree that ERG has a lot of potential upside, probably one of the better medium term speculative stocks.
SPROCKET.....
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Member wrongway Email Address withheld Member Since 10-Feb-00 No. Connections 827 No. Posts 788
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- yes erg booked a profit on the downer shares at .40 cents a share .wrongway
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Reply by wrongway to bonkers (5 of 14)
Message ERG...Contracts Wrongway---your help please Downer90 million (read 387 times; 1 reply) Conference ASX Posted Mon 31-Dec-01 12:48
Member wrongway Email Address withheld Member Since 10-Feb-00 No. Connections 827 No. Posts 788
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- erg had 55 milllion downer shares they have so far sold 35 million at .68 and .84 cents a share and have the other 20 and a bit million up for grabs according to my broker .so when they sell this last parcel the total will be between 39 and 44 million with a profit of around 15 to 18 million,if the german contract is allowed either in part or fully then the profit outlook for erg this year is very good and by june the cash position should also be around 250 to 300 million .wrongway
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Reply by bonkers to wrongway (6 of 14)
Message ERG...Contracts Wrongway---your help please Downer90 million (read 365 times; 0 replies) Conference ASX Posted Mon 31-Dec-01 12:58
Member bonkers Email Address withheld Member Since 26-Mar-01 No. Connections 725 No. Posts 412
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thankyou Wrongway---for your analysis much appreciated--I had it totally wrong in stating 10 mill---over the break---I'm going to do a precise balance sheet---my course materials from the Securities Institute are in the garden shed buried under some boxes--so I need to dig them out. Cheers,--BK.
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Member dingo37 Email Address withheld Member Since 21-Jun-01 No. Connections 597 No. Posts 28
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AZZUMAR, and there is the court case on 14/01/2002,ERG have been very very busy. I will buy more of this stock but not just yet, according to my indicators this stock will head south again,IMHO. regards dingo37
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Member bonkers Email Address withheld Member Since 26-Mar-01 No. Connections 725 No. Posts 412
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes there is a court case, people should be aware of this, nevertheless we are buying, for on the 7/1/2002---ERG should begin to trend rather than range trade---the new shares from the rights issue come into play. If there is bad news on the day of the court case and ERG goes down, we will be buying more on weakness as net asset backing is 39c. Cheers,--BK.
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Reply by bonkers to bonkers (9 of 14)
Message ERG...Contracts--cout case 14/1/2002--our order just went throughPWR (read 632 times; 0 replies) Conference ASX Posted Mon 31-Dec-01 10:17
Member bonkers Email Address withheld Member Since 26-Mar-01 No. Connections 725 No. Posts 412
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Our additional order just went through on ERG at 55c--I did say last week to trading partner to try and get them at 53c which was achievable--we are in it for the long term towards J.P. Morgan--spec buy valuation 1.22--so 5 10c either way--is fine when you are thinking like this---cause one thing Ive learn't about bullboards (in agreement with Rene Rivkin) at times are bad for investment--we are not into the trade paper for 5c idea--we believe in creating wealth over the longer term---for that reason we also have Powerlan (now that escrow is over at 42.14c--tucked in the draw)(average price paid 35c) Cheers,--BK.
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Member bonkers Email Address withheld Member Since 26-Mar-01 No. Connections 725 No. Posts 412
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hi Azzuma, my trading partner holds ERG and we are buying even more this morning at 50 something cents, agree with your analysis. The stock in our view is supported by fundamentals in the 50c range, if I can add anything to your excellent post, it would be that the 31 million added to the balance sheet is good in itself, it is also good in another respect, the balance sheet on ERG totally changes once you make it recurring, a valuation of at least a dollar is appropiate--all it needs is for the auditors to say yes. Studying what ERG have done I feel confident they will. Cheers,--BK.
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Member AZZUMAH Email Address [email protected] Member Since 7-Dec-99 No. Connections 426 No. Posts 314
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hi Bonkers...thanks for the sound analysis...but Im not sure the $31 mill is recurring revenue, not the full amount anyway.Isnt the $31mill just the value of the stock to ERG at the time of reporting, therefore how can that amount be recurring as its value could fall as well as rise over time...or am I on the wrong track??So you would be accumulating at these levels??I also expect some dips and even better entry point on any more bad news.But to be honest....for me its certainly a $2 stock at its worse,but that seems so far away and I havent seen a stock canned by the market as this has been for a real long time. cheers
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Member bonkers Email Address withheld Member Since 26-Mar-01 No. Connections 725 No. Posts 412
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hi Azzuma the 31 million will be included as recurring in ERG's balance sheet if ERG can demonstarte to the auditors that the German side of things is a maturing business rather than nascenÿ
ERG Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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