danger for CXO shareholders., page-27

USA market is critical to turning lithium prices around (sooner than projected) I think. This is due to the size of the market as well as the battery capacity required for a lot of the vehicle types they demand. China is also manipulating the market and we don't know 100% when re-stocking will kick in, although it is touted late Q2 CY24.

Some Q3 EV stats for the USA market.

Of note are the recent releases by Chevrolet. These have just come out and hardly show up in the stats at all.

Q3 2023 - Blazer (SUV)
Q3 2023 - Silverado (Pick Up)
Q4 2023 - Equinox (SUV)

Of note is the Hummer EV sales growth. I would have thought if any vehicle would have been a hard sell to convert Americans to electric it would be a cowboy car like a Hummer. If this is anything to go by then I think Chevy EV sales looks bullish. They sell the type and range of vehicles Americans want.

Price will be critical. Looking at the Equinox as a guide, it has a starting price of $35k US (roughly $51k AUD atm), not cheap but not insurmountable given the perceived benefits of EV ownership. It will be interesting to see which of these vehicles are eligible for the $7,500 tax credit - which can be claimed up front as of Jan 1, 2024. Great timing for new Chevy EV customers.

If EV sales exceed expectation in the US in the next 6 months, it will have an effect on forward projections and could also bring forward the lithium supply shortfall threshold.

Interesting next 6 months.