danger, will robinson

Clenched teeth expressions of optimism in hotcopper rampers!

Consider:

1. Now, isn't it a coincidence that Astra Zeneca announced their decision to pull their support for RSV on exactly the same day as the good news on LANI? Wow, what's the odds? Or maybe this news was held back to coincide with the LANI result. But, wait a minute, isn;t there an ASX rule on continuous timely disclosure?

2. Maybe it's not just the RSV compound that's in doubt but the whole small molecule nucleoside platform behind it. Suddenly, it's a one drug company again.

3. 5%. Yep, 5% is all the market thought it was worth. OK, let's presume that anything since 1.90 might have been expecting LANI. So, about 15%. Blaming bot trading is ridiculous. Maybe it goes up tomorrow. ANother 5 %. Hardly a haymaker. Mr Market is very nervous about BTA.

4. The clock is ticking on LANI. Remember it was patented about 4 years ago. And it's still technically 2 or 3 years away from FDA approval. And the more time passes the less on patent and the more time for INEVITABLE competitors to gain ground. Just like tamiflu did last time. Last time relenza was the only game in the town. Remember last time? So, when and where's the ROW deal? Also remember , no ROW deal this year, northern hemisphere trials can't start till end of 2010.

Everything until now has been the doing of others: GSK, DS, the developers of relenza, H1N1. BTA itself has not managed to win a court case or bring another new drug through phase 1 or pay a dividend.

BTA is now in the headlights with the ROW deal. And how it intends to reward shareholders. Everyone's watching.