OK, quick summary to date before I see what the upside potential...

OK, quick summary to date before I see what the upside potential for TiO2 is.

Transport costs to port, FOB, looking like ~A$185/t based off the May'23 Barrumbie PFS. Given PFS was +/- 40% cost accuracy, PFS tend to be overly generous on cost assumptions, and that a May'23 release would have had 2022 pricing quote dribbling in long before release, I'm, going with A$200/t to port FON the ship as a high hurdle to screen Dante.

Option 1: Direct shipping ore is just too low value and payability, even with copper credits, to carry this transport cost.

Option 2: Low Grade Ilm-Mag-Con is worth around A$200, only covers transport and also not a starter based on very similar SFX min sand Ilm-Mag-Con product. LG-Ilm_mag product based on Barrumbie PFS, where the magnetite is not sufficiently magnetic to be completely separated from the ilmenite grains.

Option 3: There is good evidence to suggest Dante ilmenite might be cleanly separated from the magnetite with gravity and magnetic process, in which case Dante might produce a ~50% TiO2 sulphate ilmenite con that sells at ~A$320/t FOB, depending on your LT ilmenite pricing outlook. The description of Hyperion and Crius Reefs by previous studies show ilmenite generally very clean and crystalline, developing in thin ilmenite rich layers separated by magnetite rich layers in the basal reef. Such a product might have ~A$120/t margin after transport/logistics costs. The value of separated HG V-Mag still looks like barely covering transport costs, so stockpile that to the side as worthless at this point. Worth exploring how that might work...

I just updated my table with what that might look like. Note the Weight Yiled% to con drops to reflect only ilmenite being recovered to product at 90% ilm, 10% mag/other. Such a con might be ~48% TiO2, which is exactly what you expect in fresh rock primary ilm con...


The importance of Weight Yiled% now comes into play, because that and recovery determines the tonnes needed to mine for a given target tonnes of Ilm-Con product. I assume a 66:33 ratio of magnetite to ilmenite as per Karykowski et al 2016, or ~33% Ilm in the basal reef on average. 33% x 80% recovery plus 10% non-ilm dilution = 30% of basal reef ore goes into each tonne of Ilm Con. Thus, if TM1 were targeting 500kt of Ilm-Con to enter the market (and that is a big chunk of ilmenite) then they would need to process 1.5Mtpa ore. Also,if the FOB after-transport value of Ilm-Con is ~A$120/t then 30% is ~ A$40/t of insitu value for the Ilmenite in basal reef ore. $40/t in ground is pretty decent credit and worth now considering the mining costs in addition to transport.

Using the average HG intervals from Crius and using pretty generous recovery and payable assumptions for the Cu-Au-PGE I get roughly $80 and double the Ilm product in-ground value per tonne of ore. Roughly that's ~1% CuEq and down to ~0.9% CuEq with recoveries/payables applied.


That would make money in a very large, low strip 2.8 LOM deposit like Nebo-Bael, except Dante Reefs will not be low strip. Can't find the JORC table with actual Nebo-Babel recoveries this morning, but from memory in the table below thay add up to ~1.5% Cu-Eq after recoveries and payables are applied. After realistic recoveries are applied to Dante Reefs, it's likely that Dante is ~0.8% Cu-Eq in the HG basal reef unless some higher grade areas are defined, which is about half that of Nebo-Babel Cu Eq...




I won;t bother doing the strip ratio demo for Dante, though I have it roughly exampled in excel. Suffice to say, unless TM1 discover a step change in Cu-Au-PGE grades and thickness the Reefs just look a long way under economic. The top ~20m is oxidised so no Cu-PGE credits means only TiO2 ore value. Under 20m to start mining a tin reef blows the strip ratio straight away. With only 1.5Mt to produce a marketable 500ktpa of Ilm_con, if they take the top 20m and process for Ilm-Co, then there is probably on 1Mtpe of fresh Cu-PGE ore left to process before maxing out the Ilm-Con saleable product. Nebo-Babel designed a 13.5Mtpa pplant on low strip to make bank... 1Mtpa on half that grade is a long, long way away imho...

GLTAH