With multi-element deposits you need to really understand how each co-product metal is monetised, which is best done focussing on the met, product and sales value of each one separately. As soon as I googled titanium direct shipping ore and Barrambie popped up I knew it would answer the questions for TiO2. I'll get to the copper later.
Barrambie has unusually high TiO2 ilmenite in the basal reef, with the central deposit going 21% TiO2. Unlike Cu-PGE sulphides, Ilmenite doesn;t suffer from weathering into final products, so ore will be mined from surface for a lower strip into basically a LG ilmenite concentrate with entrained V-magnetite to be shipped to China. There it will be reduction-roasted at high temp to allow better separation into a clean, HG ilmenite from the V-magnetite.
Below is a table with the critical recoveries from pit to product for TiO2. I have assumed the same for everything except weigh yield % and TiO2 recovery for Dante, which is in Dante's favour. That far away fro port, you want to recover the lowest weight yield for the highest overall recoveries. Even though it looks like Dante will end up 20% lower TiO2 than Barrambie, it seems reasonable with a lower weight pull and other factors being similar, for similar well-crystalised massive reef, that the outcomes won;t be dissimilar...
The pertinent points from my perspective are:
- 1 tonne of ore will produce 0.5t of Ilm-Mag-Con product for shipping to China (ie weight yield).
- the TiO2 content of Ilm-Mag-Con is 35%, same as Barrumbie but slightly lower than SFX TBird mineral sand deposit @ 38.5% TiO2 LOM avg (ie more oxidised ilmneites have higher TiO2 %)
SFX have been trying to develop TBird for years, starting with a full on-site plant that roasted the ilmenite so it could be better separated into clean HG Ilm-con and a separate Ti-Mag product (which proved too difficult to find a buyer at US$90/t). The final iteration was a cheap/simple Ilm-Mag-Con just like Barrumbie that could be shipped to China for downstream processing. TBird's off-take deal is with their JV partner, who is a steel producer and thus will use the Ti-mag as some form of Iron Ore feed substitute into their furnaces. A comparison of Barrumbies and SFX Thunderbird's Ilm_Mag_concentrate product below.
The question is what processing costs and discounts an off-taker will charge for a low grade Ilm-Mag-Con that requires further roasting and processing into a clean Ilm-feed for a slag-plant? (TiO2 slag plants smelt the ilmenite, the Fe goes to the bottom as pig iron product, and the rest or 'slag' floats to the top and is sold as ~90% TiO2 HG feed for pigment plants). Based on a contract referencing globally traded sulphate ilmenite prices, SFX is currently receiving ~US$125/t FOB for the Ilm-Mag_con. Currently prices for sulphate ilmenite and iron ore are high, so I expect this price to fall given looming extra supply and slowing world growth, especially China...
So US$125/t is ~A$185/t at 67c AUD, for loading onto a ship in the Kimberley, which is considerably closer to China than Esperance. Mining and processing costs aside, that is the sort of revenue needs to cover transport and logistics costs to Esperance for Dante. I get roughly 1000k by road from site to Leonora, then 600km by rail to Esperance. Oz Minerals 2022 DFS had the cost to transport nickel con at A$306/t... including shipping from port to international port. Obviously, there is some economies of scale advantage to shipping 800kt of LG Ilm_mag_con vs ~40kt of Ni-con, but economies of scale only save so much.
Barrumbie is about 550km by road to Geraldton, and their 2023 PFS has trucking @ A$63/t and shipping at $40/t. Assume that $30 of the $40 is for the shipopoing to China port, the rest are costs to get 'free on board' the ship, then it's A$93/t to get their Ilm-Mag_con onto the ship FOB equiv (vs CIF).
If I double the $63 for the Musgraves to Leonora trip and add half that for rail (yes, it's cheaper on rail per km, but double handling to get off the trucks and onto the train) I get $157 transport to port, then add $30 for FOB shipping and logistics, for a total of A$187/t transport costs from Dante for the Ilm-Mag-Con...
Now I always write my posts in real time, and I swear upon all I hold dearly that it's a pure coincidence that my estimated transport costs camne out the same as the SFX referenced Ilm-Mag_Con product price. In round terms though, due to the extra distance from port of Dante, unless they have some remarkable success with better recoveries due to fine grinding to co-recover the Cu-PGE or some better pricing, there isn;t any margin left on the TiO2 product. If TM1 want to refine the product on-site to move up the value chain and reduce the percenatge hit of transport, while copping Australian costs, no gas pipeline and all consumables, parts, capex etc that distance away... well, good luck.
(20min delay)