dap price falls, page-10

According to FertiliserWeek, RP has been requested by India for US$150-$160 with OCP, however OCP was unwilling to come down and negotiations broke down. The Moroccan pricing strategy is dependent on their own production costs, and the above reluctance to come down is more evidence that they are getting squeezed.

I think our co. is being deliberately coy about opex - there is clearly some wiggle room here. Consider also diesel has come down and the FOB advantage Darwin has.

Looking at currency, the USD is much more tightly coupled with the Moroccan Dhiram, than it is to the Australian Dollar - from August last year to now, production costs in USD terms have fallen by about 25% in Australia, whereas they have fallen by only 10% in Morocco.

More on the curreny front: there is some talk of using the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) as a proxy for a global currency, which would end the US dollar hegemony. That would be interesting for commodity pricing, and I dare say it would make modelling it more complex.

Anyway, food for thought.