Dare to be Different.... - Thursday, page-8

Hi Eternit

Yes I believe we will.

This sell off has been very orderly and without panic.

4600, 4400 are not far from here and I believe we will hit them soon.

As for a bounce, im looking for a few things;

- Definitive policy statements from China on their currency strategy
- US earnings - couple of bad surprises and "their will be blood"
- Oil finding a bottom; This is key for me for a couple of reasons:

i) The US HY credit market is now in turmoil so much so that it could well be the catalyst for the next GFC, S&P has already warned that a large portion of these (funding the energy industry) something along the lines of 700-800 Billion are at a risk of default if energy prices don't bounce.

ii) Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds: In the last 6 months of 2015, Saudi Arabian sovereign wealth fund pulled out close to 100bn of its overseas assets, the Gulf sovereign wealth funds will continue to do this to tackle their domestic deficits on lower oil. In case of the Saudis they also need to fund various military campaigns nameley in Yemen at the moment.

- On the domestic front, we need to see further clarification on funding and capital requirements for the Banks - we know it wont be positive and hence Banks will not be well bid this year. Without the Banks being well supported the ASX simply cannot enjoy a sustained bounce.