Manganese ore, market Outlook Is Expected to Continue Upward
1. Manganese ore port inventory
As of August 20, the inventory of manganese ore ports was 5.773 million tons, a decrease of 198,000 tons or 3.31% from the end of July. Among them, Tianjin Port was 3.865 million tons, a decrease of 418,000 tons from the end of July; Qinzhou was 1.758 million tons, an increase of 220,000 tons from the end of July. The overall inventory of manganese ore and ports in August decreased compared with that in July, but the overall inventory level is still high. The overall pressure of manganese ore shipments at the port is still high, and manufacturers mainly purchase manganese ore on demand. However, the downstream silicomanganese may face long-term production restrictions, and the demand for manganese ore is not expected, and the overall inventory is expected to continue to maintain a high level.
Chart source: Ruida Futures Research Institute
2. Ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory & delivery warehouse inventory
As of August 20, Mysteel counted a sample of 60 independent ferrosilicon companies across the country (63.54% of national production capacity): The national inventory was 36,500 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the end of July. Inventories of ferrosilicon manufacturers have been lowered compared to July. Among them, the decline in Qinghai and Gansu has been relatively large. At present, companies are basically focused on order production, spot resources are still tight, and the degree of suspension of production in the main production areas has intensified recently, and the overall inventory is expected to remain low.
Chart source: Ruida Futures Research Institute
As of August 27, there were 7,137 ferrosilicon warehouse receipts (35,685 tons), an increase of 235 (1175 tons) from the end of July. The number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts continued to increase in August, which still poses certain hidden dangers to the spot market. (Each warehouse receipt = 1 contract * 5 tons / hand = 5 tons)
Chart source: Ruida Futures Research Institute
3. Silico-manganese manufacturers inventory & delivery warehouse inventory
As of August 20, Mysteel counted a sample of 63 independent silico-manganese companies across the country (national production capacity accounted for 79.77%): The national inventory was 106,22,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons from July. Mainly due to the recent advancement of environmental protection programs in various places and the continuous implementation of crude steel production reduction policies, the output of steel mills has declined, and the demand for alloys has decreased. However, during the peak consumption season of "Golden, Nine, Silver and Ten", the steel mill market is expected to show a pattern of both production and demand. Overlapping the current enterprises basically focus on order production, spot resources are relatively tight, the main production areas continue to stop production, and the overall inventory level is expected to remain low Interval.
Chart source: Ruida Futures Research Institute
As of August 27, there were 19,083 manganese and silicon warehouse receipts (95,415 tons), an increase of 425 (2,125 tons) from the end of last month. In August, the number of manganese and silicon warehouse receipts increased. Due to the relatively high inventory of the delivery warehouse, there are still hidden dangers to the spot market. (Each warehouse receipt = 1 contract * 5 tons / hand = 5 tons)
Chart source: Ruida Futures Research Institute
4. Operating rate
1. Ferrosilicon operating rate
As of August 20, 128 independent ferrosilicon sample enterprises nationwide: operating rate was 50.52%, a decrease of 0.47% from the end of July. The operating rate of ferrosilicon continued to decline slightly in August, mainly due to the continuous suspension of production in the production area recently, which inhibited the start of enterprises. Looking ahead, the production areas are still facing problems such as power shortage and production restriction and energy consumption control. The operating rate is expected to continue to decline. However, due to high prices and better profits, manufacturers are more motivated to produce, and the downward space for operating rates may be relatively limited.
Chart source: Ruida Futures Research Institute
2. Silicon manganese operating rate
As of August 27, 121 independent silico-manganese sample enterprises across the country: operating rate was 56.13%, an increase of 13.8% from the end of July. In August, the silico-manganese operating rate increased month-on-month. Since July, the power curtailment policy in the main production areas has been frequently upgraded. The scope of coverage is mainly in the northern Inner Mongolia and Ningxia region and the southern Guangxi and Yunnan. The operating rate of silicomanganese has dropped sharply. In August, some production areas in the southern region have limited production. Liberalization has caused the overall operating rate to rise from the previous low. However, the current consumption control in the northern production areas is strict, the electricity curtailment in Inner Mongolia is severe, Ningxia has resumed consumption reduction, and Guangxi has curbed the two highs. The production of manufacturers is not stable. It is expected that the operating rate will remain low in the future.
Chart source: Ruida Futures Research Institute
5. Steel market
1. Steel plant blast furnace operating rate
As of August 27, according to Mysteel, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel plants nationwide was 74.22%, a decrease of 0.13% from the end of July. In July, steel demand was at the off-season level and many steel companies controlled production one after another, and the overall blast furnace operating rate of steel plants declined. However, after continuous adjustments in the previous period, downstream procurement continued to pick up, showing a certain degree of resilience in the short term.
Chart source: Ruida Futures Research Institute
2. National crude steel output
In July, the national crude steel output was 86.79 million tons, a decrease of 7.54% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 8.4%. Based on this calculation, the average daily output of crude steel in April was 2.893 million tons. From January to July 2021, the national crude steel output was 649 million tons, an increase of 8% year-on-year. The country’s crude steel output declined in July compared with the previous month and year-on-year. The main reason was that the traditional crude steel consumption season was approaching and the price of finished products fell, which led to a significant reduction in profits, and the policy of suppressing production by downstream steel mills was gradually implemented. . Looking ahead, steel mills will continue to limit production, but the downstream consumption season is coming, and factors such as the epidemic weather will gradually improve, steel demand will rebound, and steel supply and demand will continue to rise at a low level, which may lead to a rebound in alloy demand.
Chart source: Ruida Futures Research Institute
6. Summary and Outlook
In August, the futures prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon both rose sharply. Production reductions and restrictions in the main production areas are endless, and the supply continues to be disturbed; the spot quantity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is tight, and the overall price is firm. Most factories still indicate that there is no spot, and the order is mainly produced. The bidding prices of mainstream steel mills all rose month-on-month, and steel bidding performed well. With a lot of good news dominating the situation, the industry's bullish sentiment is strong, and the current prices are rising all the way.
OMH Price at posting:
87.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
