Data analysis

To appreciate the significance of today's announcement, one has to look at the picture from the viewpoint of Novartis.

This company paid $2.1 Billion for LuPSMA, knowing that only about 30% of patients complete 6 shots of therapy without disease progression. I wonder how much they might have paid if the figure was instead 60%?

I expect Novartis to charge about $30,000 per shot of LuPSMA or $180,000 per complete cycle. If we assume when using LuPSMA alone that 30% complete 6 shots, 40% complete three shots and 30% only one shot, the average income to Novartis per patient would be $99,000.

Based on today's announcement, treatment with LuPSMA plus Veyonda would result in 9/16 receiving 6 shots, 4/16 getting 4 shots, and 3/16 getting 3 shots, for an average income per person of $146,250 - an increase of about 47% -

PSA data is important, but not nearly as important as durability of response. Half the LuPIN patients received Veyonda at the sub-optimal level of 400mg, and yet 56% of all patients completed 6 sessions without disease progression. This is the key statistic, which should be of great interest to Novartis.