+ + data and comments + +, page-5

re: + + discussion of takeover offer + + The valuations of CSM and TIR will be prepared by persons who will be paid.

CSM supporters will mention rising CSM's production rates, rising profits and dividends against a background of strongly rising prices (See this thread), CMS's diversity and the likely introduction of an iron ore mine.

At present, the life of the CSM Chromite mine is about 10 years while the manganese mine with about 10 mill. tonnes resources and a production rate of 600,000 tonnes will last much longer (This production rate will be increased). Drilling is continuing.

They could agree that although TIR's Armstrong mine will be brought into production soon, the capital costs can be high:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=TIR&E=ASX&N=218025

They may also point to these 2 graphs:
CSM:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/javachart/javachart.asp?symb=AU%3A+CSM&time=&freq=

TIR:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/javachart/javachart.asp?symb=AU%3ATIR&time=&freq=

Closing prices: On March 22, CSM was $1.21 and is now $1.18, a decrease of 3 cents.
And TIR was 42 cents, now 52 cents.

They may point out that without the offer, CSM's price would have been higher and TIR's price would have been some 10 cents lower, ie. the market had already factored in the benefit to TIR holders of a takeover offer.

They will say that buyers of TIR above 52 cts are difficult to find and that hence the market sees 52 cents as a fair price for TIR.
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Those against the takeover will argue that now TIR's nickel mines will come into production before long, very good profits will come forth.

They will argue that there is a grave shortage of Nickel and that at the current high prices, excellent profits could be had for quite some time to come.

They will say that the prospective nickel mines are located close to the main Armstrong mine.

They will mention that continued exploration on highly prospective areas should produce still more nickel. ($5.4 mill to be spent this year on exploration and drilling).

They consider the CSM offer as being opportunistic: CSM knows that excellent Ni profits are to be made shortly and hence they are moving in now.

NB: The reader may advance additional argument for or against a takeover, if he/she so wishes.


Gerry
Does not hold CSM or TIR.
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.