day of big rebound , page-8

Let's see what ALD's god output is at the end of the July quarter, shall we?

If they pull out 40koz at a cost of ~1000/oz then they'll be on target.

While one would never be silly enough to trust a broker target, the typical value floated for ALD was $4.50 a share. When you did the numbers (160 koz/yr or better at a cost of 1000/oz or so) it wasn't so ridiculous.

The vibe I get from HC and elsewhere is that SBM have a good reputation for running their mines and extracting maximum resource. If they can keep the two mines running to spec then things could work out well. As zog points out, it gives them exploration upside into PNG as well. There are the tenements ALD currently owns, and, more speculatively, if you look at something like FNT's exploration at Sudest, there are other options there as well.

SBM may have bid high, but they didn't bid stupid. Sure it's a risk. I like it.