Working on the basis of a 15 percent decline that would bring the NTA to 93.3 cents (25 percent NTA discount to current SP) and the gearing to 38 percent (the covenant is 50 percent). A 20 percent decline would see the NTA drop to 85 cents (18 percent discount to the current NTA) and the gearing rise to 40 percent so there is still breathing space there. I'd say we are going to end up somewhere between those two figures. In order to establish fair value you'd probably have to say that TOT should trade at around a 10 percent NTA discount due to it's small size and the newish structure not really being proven. I'm hoping they will be able to maintain the fully franked dividend but higher interest costs will also eat into the earnings. Basically I would say the company isn't in danger of a capital raise or breaching covenants but it might be a long wait before the NTA discount closes.
TOT Price at posting:
70.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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