Now I have said a few times "I am mostly wrong with regards to my sp predictions"...this goes for any company I comment on
But it is evident to me that the Wesfarmers/KDR offer has created a real and I think, for the shorter's, an unexpected conundrum.
I think that given the state of where this huge electrical disruption is currently at, they figured they might have had 12 through 24 months to deal with covering their positions. I say this because there is 80+ giga factory's that are slated to be built, they'll most likely start coming on line en masse late 2021-2022, possibly all 80 odd commissioned by say 2023, at the latest 2025 given the new models of EV's that have been announced by the likes of VW for around then....my guess could be wrong on all of that.
But reality is most of the battery factory's have only just been announced at this stage, this is why I harp on the point that this whole change in the way we consume energy is in it's orphan period, these factory's are not built, battery metals crunch not here yet, as there not required YET.
My thoughts are that many shorter's who are analyzing information more thoroughly than I ever would/do think this too, and have figures/data to support it.
The KDR/Wesfarmers type scenario while always on the cards at some point is probably 12 months earlier than they anticipated, and may spark an "arms race" between your Rio's BHP's, Ganfeng's, SK, CATL's the whole damn shooting match. I mean it's been underway in a kind of clandestine way, but big takeover's change things, bring it more to the forefront of peoples minds and even awaken the Luddites from their slumber.
It will be interesting to see the shortman data over the coming weeks so we can get a clearer picture regarding their course of action.
They've gotta be covering those 185m shares now..........surely.
On the conspiracy theory side of the coin...tin foil hats on please
Only other explanation is some kind of interrelated "off book" type scenario where if the short positions go bad it's just an inter company tax loss anyway/or payment in kind for services rendered between company's to keep sp suppressed for deals/take overs etc. and surely that kind of thing would not be in the right "spirit of the game" nor legal....but how would you know what the BEOT filth are up to really........
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