Day to day discussions on S/P, page-7952

I just think you are reading the future incorrectly.

* The only way Tesla will fall over is if its outdone by its EV (I repeat EV) competitors. Which is actually a very real possibility and would be a good thing for EV adoption. They started early when cell cost were very high, and subsidies were needed back then and hence only hit profitability recently.

* Model 3 at US$35,000 without subsidies is reality and this is smack bang on the average US automobile sale price in 2018.


* So people are on average spending more each year on ICE vehicles (US$35K average now) and yet EVs keep coming down in price because the most expensive component, the battery keeps getting cheaper each year. The graph below extended to 2019 sees cell costs near $100/kWh for Tesla (which I remember some time back was going to happen only in 2025). So EVs are already approaching parity with ICE vehicles in terms of manufacturing. Since 40% of the cost of a Model 3 is the battery, there is still room for improvement.



Now this is only Tesla. Volkswagen has stated “We have invested 30 billion in electromobility, we have already rededicated a plant in Zwickau, and we are building an electric vehicle plant in Shanghai. We will come in 2020 with vehicles that can do anything like Tesla and are cheaper by half” Just about every major car manufacturer has an extensive EV line up planned and many are already stating they will be EV only in X number of years.

One also needs to add additional factors to the entire cost equation.
* EV are cheaper to fuel than ICE by at least 50%
* EV vehicles are more reliable and thus have less maintenance cost due to having vastly less moving parts.
* EV are being heavily pushed politically due to environmentally issues.

In the end its about sales and with year to year growth of 41%, 58% and 63% for 2016, 2017 and 2018, I'm simply not seeing your reality.